I hope you had an amazing week!

ICYMI, you can see the latest Top Pick of the Week here →

A quick highlight from last week →

⚡ DUK — First Target Reached! 🎉 Time to Review the Exit Plan 👑

DUK was one of our Top Picks of the Week back on September 30, 2026, and it has now reached our first target: the 200-day SMA! Now the focus shifts to managing the trade.

• For swing traders: With the first target reached, this is a good time to review your exit plan and consider taking profits. I’m also watching the RSI for an extreme-high reading that could signal stretched momentum.

• For position traders: Taking partial profits near the first target while keeping a portion for a potential move toward fair value is another approach, provided the longer-term thesis remains intact.

Remember: Don’t cut your winners too short, but don’t ignore your exit plan either. Let your strategy, not your emotions, decide when to ring the register.

👑 BEFORE WE GET INTO THE PLAYBOOK...

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Paid subscribers get the full Sunday Market Playbook every week, plus my Wednesday Top Pick of the Week and the research and trade ideas I’m watching along the way.

You can start today’s Playbook for free, but the full post is for paid subscribers.

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Let’s dig into last week’s market recap and the playbook for the week ahead →

My watchlist is growing, but my buy list isn’t.

That’s where I stand heading into the final trading week of October.

Last week, oil led my seven major assets while gold finished last. The Dow held its breakout, but the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq couldn’t maintain theirs.

Meanwhile, Energy , Healthcare , and Real Estate led the sectors as Technology and Communication Services struggled.

And here’s something interesting: Software stocks were breaking out while Semiconductors were testing support.

Investors appear to be questioning the cost of AI infrastructure while looking for businesses that can profit from AI services.

I’m finding potential opportunities in beaten-down stocks, particularly technology and semiconductors, but attractive valuations don’t guarantee attractive entries.

I want to see the major indexes establish a bottom and buyers return before adding new positions.

With the Fed, major technology earnings, and important economic reports ahead, I’m watching more than I’m trading. Let’s get into the charts. 👑

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I. The Big Picture: Seven Major Assets. Selective Leadership.

Last week’s performance rankings told an interesting story: USO → TLT → DIA → SPY → QQQ → BTCUSD → GLD.

Oil and bonds led, the Dow Jones showed relative strength, and Gold and Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) lagged.

However, the biggest question heading into this week is whether the DIA can continue holding its breakout while the SPY and the QQQ struggle.

USO led the week, with an RSI reading near 72. Rising geopolitical tensions and elevated crude prices provide a fundamental backdrop for the rally.

Technically, USO’s momentum is strong, but that extreme-high RSI reading makes this more interesting for profit-taking or position management than chasing a fresh entry.

The TLT finished second, with RSI near 63, advancing toward its 200-day SMA. The move coincided with falling Treasury yields vand weakness in technology stocks .

The DIA is still holding its breakout. The SPY and QQQ aren’t.

That divergence is one of the week’s most important developments.

Strength in established blue-chip and dividend-paying companies suggests investors are becoming more selective, but can the DIA continue outperforming if technology remains weak?

The SPY failed to hold its breakout and closed below its 20-day SMA.

Friday also printed a doji, signaling indecision between buyers and sellers. A doji can appear near a reversal, but the next move matters more than the bar itself.

The QQQ also failed to maintain its breakout as selling pressure continued across technology. Concerns about AI capital spending provide one possible explanation, particularly with semiconductor stocks under pressure.

I’m interested in the long-term opportunities developing here, but I want price confirmation before adding exposure. I’m watching for stabilization in the QQQ and improving momentum in semiconductors.

Bitcoin’s attempted breakout didn’t hold, leaving its developing base under pressure.

The key question is whether buyers defend support or price breaks lower. I’m watching for support, sideways consolidation, and renewed buying pressure.

GLD finished last and declined below its 200-day SMA. I’m looking for price stabilization and a close above the 5-day EMA while putting in the accumulation zone.

The Dow Jones is holding its breakout while the SPY and the QQQ are struggling.

That could be a healthy rotation into other areas of the market, or an early warning that weakness is spreading.

For now, I’m watching which index confirms the next move. The market doesn’t need me to predict the bottom. It needs to show me one.

Here’s how the 7 major asset classes ranked this week

1. Oil

2. 20 Year Bonds Treasury ETF

3. The Dow Jones 30

4. The S&P 500

5. The S&P 500

6. Bitcoin ($BTCUSD)

7. Gold

♥️ Market Pulse: 3/7

• 3/7 assets are up.

• DIA, USO, TLT are up.

• BTC, GLD, SPY, QQQ are down.

II. Section Rotation: Selective Strength Across the Market

Eight of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished higher last week, but technology wasn’t leading the advance.

Energy , Healthcare , and Real Estate were the top three performers, while Communication Services , Industrials , and Technology finished at the bottom.

The XLE reached an extreme-high RSI reading, while the XLV approached one. Both sectors showed strong momentum, but those elevated readings also put profit-taking opportunities on my radar rather than fresh entries.

Another interesting development was the similar price action in the XLE, Utilities , and Treasury bonds .

All three are sensitive to interest rates, and their strength alongside declining Treasury yields is worth watching ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision. Utilities may also be attracting defensive buying.

Communication services and the XLI were trading below their 200-day SMAs, adding to the weakness among last week’s laggards.

Meanwhile, software stocks showed relative strength even as the broader technology sector struggled—a divergence I’ll explore in the industry-group review.

Consumer Discretionary briefly reclaimed its 200-day SMA, but couldn’t hold it.

With technology and communication services also struggling, the sector charts are showing selective strength rather than a broad-based rally.

III. Important Secondary Assets & Industries: Software Breaks Out While Semiconductors Struggle

One of last week’s most interesting developments was the divergence between software and semiconductors .

The IGV was breaking out while the SOXX continued declining, testing its 200-day SMA with RSI near 31. Two areas of technology, two very different charts.

The fundamental backdrop raises an interesting question: Can companies spending billions on AI infrastructure generate enough returns to justify those investments?

Investors may be shifting their attention toward software businesses capable of turning AI into profitable services.

The question is shifting from who’s building AI to who’s making money from it.

That doesn’t mean semiconductor demand has peaked or every software company will benefit.

For now, the SOXX is testing an important technical level. I’m watching whether buyers defend its 200-day SMA and momentum begins improving. Until then, the IGV has the stronger technical picture.

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Read more

Hershey .

I featured HSY in April as a long-term value and dividend opportunity, when price was trading just below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA).

Six months later, the chart looks different.

HSY is trading further below its 200-day SMA, but short-term momentum is improving and that creates an interesting question:

Could HSY offer both a swing trade and a long-term investment opportunity?

I think it’s worth watching. Here’s why.

Here’s the setup →

NIM Top Pick of the Week 👑

• Ticker:

• Company: Hershey Foods Corp.

• Sector: Consumer Staples

• Industry: Food Products

• Valuation: Morningstar currently rates HSY five stars with a $230 fair-value estimate and a wide economic moat.

• Dividend: Yes. HSY pays a quarterly dividend with a 3.42% yield.

• Potential swing-trade target: 200-day SMA, around $188.

First, let’s start where every trade should start—with the Big Picture.

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I. The Business: Better Earnings, One Big Question

HSY’s second-quarter results showed progress:

• Revenue: $2.79 billion, up 6.6%.

• Adjusted earnings per share: $1.90, up 57%.

• Organic pricing: Up approximately 12%.

• Sales volume/mix: Down approximately 8%.

That last comparison matters.

HSY raised prices, but consumers bought fewer products.

The company’s brands still have pricing power. The question is how long it can lean on higher prices without further hurting demand.

HSY also raised its full-year outlook, and its next earnings report is scheduled for October 29.

I’ll be watching for signs that margins and consumer demand are improving.

Is HSY undervalued?

At Tuesday’s closing price of $169.58, HSY was trading approximately 26% below Morningstar’s $230 fair-value estimate.

Morningstar also assigned HSY a 5-star rating, with a low uncertainty assessment.

The stock offers an annualized dividend yield of approximately 3.4% at that price.

That’s an interesting combination for a long-term investor.

However, Morningstar’s estimate is an opinion, not a guaranteed destination. Several Wall Street analysts have recently lowered their price targets.

The valuation looks attractive. The business still has something to prove.

HSY chart annotation →

II. The Chart: Momentum is Improving

Here’s what stood out on Tuesday:

HSY has reclaimed its 5-day EMA, 10-day EMA, and 20-day SMA.

The RSI reading near 55 suggests improving momentum, and the positive MACD histogram supports that recovery, but there’s a caution flag.

Money Flow Index is around 75.

Buying pressure is already elevated, so I’m not interested in chasing a sharp move higher.

The initial close above the 5-day EMA has occurred. Now I’m watching whether price can hold its recovery or offer a more attractive entry after a pullback.

And the level I’m watching overhead?

The 200-day SMA near $188.

In other words:

→ this is an amazing buy & hold opportunity to pick up shares of HSY, an undervalued trophy stock to hold for the long-term, if not forever.

→ we can also position trade HSY back to true value and beyond and make massive gains.

→ we can take a simple swing trade to the 200-day SMA.

→ if you’re an experienced, astute trader, you can write option contracts on HSY and do what you do and make exponential gains.

Link to HSY chart

III. Two Potential Plays. Two Different Plans.

1. The Swing Trade

With HSY around $169.58 and its 200-day SMA near $187.66, there’s approximately 10.7% potential upside to that moving average.

That’s my technical target, not a prediction.

I’d prefer a controlled pullback followed by renewed strength above the 5-day EMA, with a clear level that would invalidate the setup.

And there’s one important complication:

Hershey reports earnings October 29.

An earnings gap can move price sharply past a stop-loss level. I need to decide whether the swing trade is worth holding through that event before entering.

2. The Buy & Hold Play

For a longer-term position, I’m looking beyond the chart.

Morningstar’s $230 fair-value estimate implies approximately 35.6% potential upside from Tuesday’s close, excluding dividends.

But realizing that value depends on HSY’s business performance, particularly margins, cocoa costs, consumer demand, and earnings growth.

The dividend adds income potential while an investor waits, but it doesn’t eliminate the risk.

And here’s the trap I refuse to fall into:

Entering a stock for a swing trade, watching the trade fail, and suddenly calling it a long-term investment. 😂

NOPE.

Decide which trade you’re taking before you buy.

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IV: Why I’m Revisiting HSY

Here’s something I want newer investors to understand.

→ You don’t need a new ticker every week.

I prefer keeping a focused watchlist of roughly 10–20 companies I can follow closely.

That doesn’t mean owning all of them. It means learning their businesses, earnings cycles, valuations, and chart behavior.

Hershey is a good example.

I liked its long-term potential in April. Now I’m evaluating a different technical opportunity while keeping the original investment thesis in view.

A familiar company can offer a fresh setup.

You just have to recognize when the opportunity changes.

The Bottom Line

Hershey is my Top Pick this week because its short-term technical picture is improving while its longer-term valuation deserves attention.

• For the swing trade, I’m watching for an entry with manageable risk and a potential move toward the 200-day SMA near $188.

• For the long-term investment, I’m watching whether earnings and consumer demand can support Morningstar’s $230 fair-value estimate.

With earnings approaching, patience matters more than chasing.

Same stock. New opportunity. Different game plans.

Following a systematic approach, reading market structure, and staying disciplined compounds over time.

Let me know what you’re watching and thank you so much for reading! 🙌

-Nurse Jess 🤝

Know the Big Picture. Focus on the Edge. 👑

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📌 Bookmark this post. Track these setups through the week and see how they play out. This is how you develop an edge—by studying real-time trade ideas and learning what works.

Financial Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. All trades carry risk. Biotech stocks are highly volatile and speculative. Always do your own due diligence and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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I hope you had an awesome week!

ICYMI, you can see the latest Top Pick of the Week here →

A quick highlight from last week →

Duke Energy Corp. is on the move and price is approaching its first target, the 200-day SMA, with RSI climbing to 66.

DUK was one of our Top Picks of the Week back on September 30, 2026, and now it’s time to start thinking about our exit strategy.

• For swing traders: Price hasn’t reached the 200-day SMA or an extreme-high RSI reading yet. I’m watching for those signals before considering taking profits.

• For position traders: You may choose to take partial profits near the first target while keeping a portion of the position for a potential move toward fair value and beyond.

Remember: Don’t cut your winners too short. Lock in profits when your plan calls for it, but give your winners room to run.

👑 BEFORE WE GET INTO THE PLAYBOOK...

For the month of October, you can get 22% off an annual Nurse in the Market subscription.

Paid subscribers get the full Sunday Market Playbook every week, plus my Wednesday Top Pick of the Week and the research and trade ideas I’m watching along the way.

You can start today’s Playbook for free, but the full post is for paid subscribers.

So if you’ve been hanging out on the free side waiting for a reason to join us...

22% off. October only. Come join us. 👑

Upgrade 22% off forever

Let’s dig into last week’s market recap and the playbook for the week ahead →

Oil is Running, Tech is Struggling. What’s Next?

Last week, the market told two different stories.

Oil led the seven assets I track, followed by bonds and the Dow Jones , while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq struggled.

The DIA held its breakout and 5-day EMA, but the SPY and the QQQ fell below their 20-day SMAs. The QQQ took the harder hit, with the QQQ’s RSI reading approaching oversold territory.

The selloff in AI and semiconductor stocks raised fresh questions about the debt financing behind the AI buildout, even as major chip suppliers reported strong demand.

Meanwhile, the USO surged, TLT broke out below its 200-day SMA, and gold began forming an accumulation setup. Bitcoin (BTC) remained under pressure, leaving me watching whether it stabilizes or continues lower.

My focus for the week ahead: Can the DIA maintain its strength while the SPY and QQQ find support? And will money continue moving toward oil and bonds, or return to growth?

The market isn’t moving together and that’s exactly why I’m watching where the money goes next.

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I. The Market Vitals

Here’s how the 7 major asset classes ranked this week

1. Oil

2. 20 Year Bonds Treasury ETF

3. The Dow Jones 30

4. Gold

5. Bitcoin ($BTCUSD)

6. The S&P 500

7. The Nasdaq-100

♥️ Market Pulse: 3/7

• 3/7 assets are up.

• DIA, USO, TLT are up.

• BTC, GLD, SPY, QQQ are down.

II. Section Rotation

Seven of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished higher last week, led by Consumer Staples +5.02%, Energy +4.86%, and Healthcare +3.45%.

Technology was the clear laggard at −7.70%.

The XLP continued its breakout above the 200-day SMA, but the RSI reading reached 73. The strength is undeniable. So is the risk of chasing an extended move.

The XLE followed oil higher, trading well above its 200-day SMA with RSI near 70. Momentum remains strong, but I’d rather watch for a pullback than chase the rally.

Materials gained 3.01% and is developing an interesting recovery setup. Price has reclaimed its shorter-term moving averages, the RSI is improving near 59, and the MACD histogram has turned positive.

Now I’m watching whether the XLB can reclaim its 200-day SMA around $51.32.

Utilities gained 1.93%, continuing its rebound above the shorter-term averages while remaining below the 200-day SMA. There’s improving momentum, but overhead resistance still matters.

Meanwhile, Technology fell sharply, Communication Services slipped below its 20-day SMA, and Industrials declined 0.88%.

My takeaway: The XLP and XLE are running, but stretched. The XLB is approaching a technical test, while the XLU is recovering below longer-term resistance. I’m watching for confirmation and better entries—not chasing last week’s winners.

III. Important Secondary Assets & Industries

The industry charts show a market moving in opposite directions.

Oil and gas exploration is leading, semiconductors are getting hammered, and several beaten-down groups are trying to recover, but a bounce isn’t a breakout.

The XOP is showing the clearest strength, trading above its key moving averages with RSI near 65. Momentum remains strong, but money flow is getting stretched. I’m watching for a pullback rather than chasing the rally.

The SOXX is telling a different story. Price has broken below its shorter-term moving averages, RSI is near 31, and selling pressure remains heavy. The 200-day SMA is the next major area I’m watching if the decline continues.

Regional Banks are attempting to stabilize around their 200-day SMA, while Homebuilders have edged back above the 5-day EMA.

Both deserve attention, but I want to see follow-through before treating either as a confirmed recovery.

Small Caps remain weak, trading below the 200-day SMA with RSI near 32. Gold Miners are showing early improvement above the 5-day EMA, but still face resistance from their longer moving averages.

My focus for the week ahead: XOP for a pullback, SOXX and IWM for signs that selling pressure is easing, and KRE, XHB, and GDX for confirmation.

Strength is obvious. The next opportunity may be hiding in the recovery setups

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Read more

This week? PepsiCo .

From artificial intelligence to potato chips.

Welcome to my trading desk. 😂🥤

I don’t need every stock on my board to be exciting. I need a reason to own it, a reason to trade it, or preferably, both.

And that’s what caught my attention about PepsiCo (PEP).

I’m looking at two potential opportunities:

1. The investment: An established business trading below Morningstar’s fair-value estimate, with a substantial dividend while investors wait for a possible recovery.

2. The trade: An early technical recovery that could turn into a bread-and-butter swing trade toward the 200-day simple moving average (SMA).

→ Same stock. Two different plans.

Let’s see whether PEP earns its place.

Here’s the setup →

NIM Top Pick of the Week 👑

• Ticker: PEP

• Company: PepsiCo, Inc.

• Sector: Consumer Staples

• Industry: Soft Drinks

• Valuation: Morningstar currently rates PEP five stars with a $169 fair-value estimate and a wide economic moat.

• Dividend: Yes. PEP pays a quarterly dividend with a 4.67% yield.

• Potential swing-trade target: 200-day SMA, around $143.96.

First, let’s start where every trade should start—with the Big Picture.

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Paid subscribers get my Sunday Market Playbook, Wednesday Top Pick of the Week, and the research and trade ideas I’m watching along the way.

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The Big Picture: Market → Sector → Industry → Stock → Fundamental Analysis

You already know how I work.

1. Market first.

2. Then sector.

3. Then industry and stock.

4. Fundamental analysis.

I want as much working in my favor as possible before I take the trade and this week, the pieces are lining up.

I. The Market: The S&P 500 (SPY)

The market has been making new highs, but leadership beneath the surface is changing.

Technology hasn’t been the only place attracting buyers. Defensive areas have started participating too.

That matters because I don’t want to evaluate PEP without understanding where money is moving.

The question isn’t whether PEP is more exciting than the latest AI stock.

→ It’s whether the market environment gives a defensive, dividend-paying business room to recover.

For that, I’m watching its sector.

II. The Sector: The XLP Has Broken Out

Consumer Staples was one of the standouts in Sunday’s Market Playbook.

The XLP gained 3.60% over five trading days, broke out above its 20-day SMA, and reclaimed its 200-day SMA.

That’s a notable change in technical behavior. Now I want to see those reclaimed levels hold.

There’s one catch: PEP hasn’t confirmed the same breakout yet.

→ The sector is showing strength.

PEP is still trying to catch up and that gap between sector strength and stock confirmation is exactly why PEP is interesting to watch.

III. The Industry: What About KO & KDP?

I also looked at Coca-Cola and Keurig Dr Pepper to put PEP’s chart in context, but there’s an important difference between these businesses.

PEP’s exposure goes well beyond beverages. Its snack brands are a major part of the story, so a comparison with KO or KDP alone doesn’t capture everything driving PEP’s results.

For now, I’m treating the peer charts as context rather than claiming PEP is the strongest stock in the group.

→ The XLP has confirmed its breakout. PEP still needs to confirm its own.

That’s the distinction I’m trading.

IV: The Business: Great Brands, Real Challenges

PEP owns brands people recognize without reading the label twice.

• Pepsi.

• Gatorade.

• Mountain Dew.

• Lay’s.

• Doritos.

• Cheetos.

That’s an appealing collection of everyday products, but familiar brands don’t make a stock immune to weak demand or margin pressure.

According to Morningstar’s October 9 analysis, PEP reported approximately 3% organic revenue growth in the third quarter, while North American food and beverage sales were roughly flat.

Core operating margin declined 35 basis points to 16.9%.

So the question isn’t whether PEP has recognizable products.

It does.

→ The question is whether the business can improve its growth and profitability enough to change how investors value the stock.

That’s the recovery case.

V. The Fundamental Valuation

Here’s where the longer-term opportunity gets interesting.

My October 13 Morningstar research showed:

• Fair-value estimate: $169

• Stock price: $127.30

• Morningstar rating: 5 stars

• Forward dividend yield: 4.67%

At that price, PEP was trading approximately 25% below Morningstar’s fair-value estimate.

That’s a meaningful discount, assuming the estimate holds up, and the dividend adds another reason to look.

A forward yield of 4.67% could appeal to investors willing to collect income while waiting for the business to recover, but I still want to monitor earnings, cash flow, debt, and dividend sustainability. A high yield doesn’t erase business risk.

For a long-term position, I’m interested in the combination of valuation, income, and a potential operating recovery.

For a swing trade? I’m looking at something else entirely.

PEP chart annotation →

VI. The PEP Chart

Here’s the technical picture:

I like that price has moved back above the 5-day and 10-day EMAs and I like that RSI is recovering and I like that the MACD histogram is beginning to improve.

Price is also starting to break above its 20-day SMA exhibiting a breakout it underway here.

Confirmation of a breakout would be price closing above its 20-day SMA.

Until then, I’m watching a developing setup—not an entry signal that’s already fired.

In other words:

→ this is an amazing buy & hold opportunity to pick up shares of PEP, an undervalued / dividend king & trophy stock to hold for the long-term, if not forever.

→ we can also position trade PEP back to true value and beyond and make massive gains.

→ we can take a simple swing trade to the 200-day SMA.

→ if you’re an experienced, astute trader, you can write option contracts on PEP and do what you do and make exponential gains.

Link to PEP chart

👑 LIKE HOW WE BREAK DOWN A TRADE?

Market. Sector. Stock. Setup. Research.

That’s what we do inside Nurse in the Market every week.

For October, an annual subscription is 22% off, giving you access to the Sunday Market Playbook, Wednesday Top Pick of the Week, and the trade ideas and research I’m watching in between.

Come trade the Big Picture with us. 👑

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My Plan: Two Ways to Play PEP

1. The Long-Term Dividend/Value Position

For a longer-term investment, the appeal is straightforward.

PEP is an established business trading below Morningstar’s estimated fair value of $169, with a dividend that may provide income while management works through its operating challenges.

The investment thesis depends on improving business performance and a sustainable dividend and it also requires patience.

A stock can remain undervalued for a long time.

2. The Simple Swing Trade

This is the technical opportunity I’m watching.

• Potential trigger: A close above the 20-day SMA, approximately $128.21 on the October 13 chart.

• Potential target: The 200-day SMA, approximately $143.96.

• What would concern me: A failed breakout, renewed weakness below the short-term moving averages, or deteriorating sector conditions.

The distance from the October 13 price of $127.30 to the October 13 200-day SMA was approximately 13.1%.

That’s a useful reference point, but it isn’t the expected return on a trade entered later. The actual entry price and moving averages may be different when a signal appears.

I’d also need to identify a sensible invalidation level and evaluate the risk/reward before entering.

→ The $169 Morningstar fair value estimate belongs to the long-term valuation case. The 200-day SMA belongs to the swing-trade plan.

I don’t want to mix those targets up.

What Could Go Wrong?

Three things are at the top of my list.

1. The business recovery stalls. Weak demand and margin pressure could keep weighing on earnings.

2. The dividend becomes harder to support. Income is attractive only if the business can continue funding it.

3. The breakout fails. PEP could briefly reclaim its 20-day SMA, then reverse before getting anywhere near the 200-day SMA.

That’s why I’m interested in the opportunity without assuming the outcome.

The Bottom Line

PepsiCo isn’t the flashiest stock on my board.

Good.

I’m watching a business with a potential valuation opportunity, an attractive dividend, and a technical setup that may be turning.

For the investor, it’s about value, income, and a possible business recovery.

For the trader, it’s about one question:

Can PEP close above its 20-day SMA and start working toward the 200-day?

That’s what I’m watching next. From Google to Doritos.

Different business. Different opportunity. Same trading discipline. 😂🥤

Following a systematic approach, reading market structure, and staying disciplined compounds over time.

Let me know what you’re watching and thank you so much for reading! 🙌

-Nurse Jess 🤝

Know the Big Picture. Focus on the Edge. 👑

Leave a comment

Recent Articles

Scan the QR code below to subscribe to Nurse in the Market →

📌 Bookmark this post. Track these setups through the week and see how they play out. This is how you develop an edge—by studying real-time trade ideas and learning what works.

Financial Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. All trades carry risk. Biotech stocks are highly volatile and speculative. Always do your own due diligence and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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I hope you had a great week!

ICYMI, you can see the latest Top Pick of the Week here →

A quick highlight from last week →

Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg hit an extreme-high RSI reading and blew through its previous high target zone again on Monday signaling it’s time to lock in some profits here!! TSM was one of our Top Picks of the Week back on 9/9/26.

Price is still trading undervalued here according to Morningstar. If this was simply a swing trade for you, you could close the trade. If this is a position trade, you could lock in profits and leave some to run because TSM is still undervalued and you also never know how high stocks can go!

Remember, don’t cut your winners too short! Lock in profits, but let your winners run. Congratulations to you in the TSM / TSMX trade!!

Let’s dig into last week’s market recap and the playbook for the week ahead →

👑 BEFORE WE GET INTO THE PLAYBOOK...

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New Highs. New Leaders. Now Show Me The Setups.

The indexes are making records, but the action underneath is changing.

I’m watching which sectors are gaining strength, which former leaders can hold support, and where the next setups might develop.

The market made new highs this week, but technology wasn’t doing all the heavy lifting.

Utilities, consumer staples, and energy showed strength while parts of the technology trade came under pressure and the equal-weight S&P 500 outperformed the traditional cap-weighted index for the first time in seven weeks.

→ That’s enough to get my attention, but is this a real shift in leadership—or just a breather for the usual suspects? 👀

I’m not making that call based on one week. I’m going to the charts.

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I. The Market Vitals

My Friday notes showed six of seven major asset classes green, with Bitcoin (BTC) the exception.

That’s a constructive backdrop, but the individual charts were telling different stories.

SOXX: Semiconductors

My note was simple: Might roll over. Holding the 20-day SMA.

After the selling pressure in semiconductors, that 20-day SMA is the level I’m watching.

A hold would give the group a chance to stabilize. A break below it would tell me the technical picture is weakening.

For now, I’m watching support rather than assuming the next move.

IWM: Small Caps

IWM tested its 200-day SMA and closed above it.

That’s encouraging, but I’d like to see additional closes above that level and stronger price action around the 5-day EMA.

One good close gets IWM on my radar. Follow-through keeps it there.

DIA: The Dow Jones

DIA reclaimed its 200-day SMA and finished Friday above it.

That’s an improvement in the longer-term technical picture, but I’m not calling it a fresh breakout based on the 200-day SMA alone.

I want to see whether buyers can build on that move.

The Question Underneath The Highs

The indexes may be making records, but the opportunity isn’t evenly distributed.

Semiconductors are testing support. Small caps and the Dow Jones are working to establish stronger technical footing. And some of the sectors that haven’t been leading are starting to get my attention.

Is money rotating into new leadership?

Possibly, but I’m not confusing a strong week with a confirmed trend.

Nine of eleven SPDR sectors were green and the differences between those charts matter more to me than the headline index level because the next opportunity might not be in the stock everybody’s already talking about.

It might be sitting in a sector that’s quietly improving while nobody’s paying attention.

Here’s how the 7 major asset classes ranked this week

1. The Nasdaq-100

2. The S&P 500

3. The Dow Jones 30

4. Bitcoin ($BTCUSD)

5. Oil

6. Gold

7. 20 Year Bonds Treasury ETF

♥️ Market Pulse: 6/7

• 6/7 assets are up.

• GLD, SPY, QQQ, DIA, USO, TLT are up.

• BTC is down.

New highs are the headline. The setups underneath are where the work begins and this week’s sector board has plenty to say. 👑

II. Section Rotation

Utilities , Energy , and Consumer Staples led my five-day sector rankings. Technology and industrials lagged, but the charts tell me more than the rankings.

• XLU: Utilities Already Running

XLU gained 3.97% over five days and broke out above its 20-day SMA.

It’s running, with price above its 5-day and 10-day EMAs, but the 200-day SMA is still overhead.

I’m watching how XLU handles that potential resistance—not chasing the move after a strong week.

• XLP: Consumer Staples Breakout Confirmed

XLP gained 3.60%, breaking out above its 20-day SMA and pushing through its 200-day SMA.

That’s a meaningful improvement in the technical picture.

Now I want to see those levels hold. A breakout is one thing. Staying above it is another.

• XLF: Financials Setting Up

XLF gained 2.32% and is recovering above its 200-day SMA, but it hasn’t closed above its 20-day SMA.

That’s my breakout trigger.

With major bank earnings starting Tuesday, this is one of the more interesting setups on my board.

I’ll let the earnings reaction and price action make the decision.

• XLRE: Real Estate Early Recovery

XLRE gained 1.96% and is bouncing from its recent decline.

The RSI is recovering, and the MACD histogram is improving. But price remains below its 20-day and 200-day SMAs.

Encouraging? Yes. A confirmed breakout? Not yet.

• Elsewhere On The Board

Energy (XLE) was another strong performer, while healthcare (XLV) showed strength worth monitoring.

Technology (XLK) and industrials (XLI) were the week’s sector laggards.

My Takeaway

XLU is running. XLP has broken out. XLF is approaching its trigger. XLRE is trying to recover.

Four charts. Four different decisions.

→ That’s why I look at the setup before I look at the ticker.

Now let’s see which individual stocks are earning a spot on my board. 👑

III. Important Secondary Assets & Industries

The sector rankings only tell part of the story. The industry ETFs show where the differences get interesting.

• IGV vs. SOXX: A Tale of Two Technology Trades

Software (IGV) led my secondary asset rankings, gaining 3.91% over five days.

Semiconductors (SOXX) went the other direction, losing 5.01%.

That’s an 8.92-percentage-point gap between two major technology groups.

Over the past month, IGV gained 10.65%, while SOXX gained 5.22%.

Technology isn’t moving as one trade.

Software has the stronger short-term momentum. Meanwhile, SOXX is testing its 20-day SMA after a difficult week.

I’m watching whether semiconductor buyers defend that level or whether software continues to pull ahead.

• XLF vs. KRE: The Banking Split

Financials (XLF) gained 2.32% over five days and are approaching a potential breakout above the 20-day SMA.

Regional banks (KRE) lost 2.50%.

That’s a 4.82-percentage-point difference within the broader financial trade and with major bank earnings beginning Tuesday, that divergence deserves attention.

The big financial picture is improving. Regional banks haven’t joined the party.

I’ll be watching whether earnings bring buyers into KRE or widen the gap.

• Elsewhere On My Board

Energy exploration and production (XOP) gained 3.56%, supporting the strength I saw in the broader energy sector.

Gold miners (GDX) rose 1.71%, while junior miners (GDXJ) gained 0.69%. Both remain sharply lower over the past month.

Homebuilders (XHB) fell 2.00%, another reminder that strength isn’t spreading evenly.

• From Industry To Stock

The strongest sector doesn’t always contain the strongest industry. And the strongest industry doesn’t automatically give me a trade.

→ That’s why I work from the market down to the individual stock.

Now let’s get to the names on my board. 👑

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→ Same stock, new setup, and that’s exactly how I want it.

I don’t need to find a brand-new ticker every Wednesday just so I can say I found something new.

I’d rather follow the same group of high-quality companies, learn how their stocks behave, and wait for another setup.

And right now?

GOOGL is setting up again.

• The broader market (SPY) is improving.

• Communication Services (XLC) is turning.

• GOOGL is attempting a breakout.

• And underneath the chart, I still see a company I want exposure to with Search, YouTube, Cloud, AI, and one business I’m literally watching drive around Miami.

  • Waymo. ←

More on that in a minute because I counted 19 of them on one coffee trip to Wynwood last week.

Here’s the setup →

NIM Top Pick of the Week 👑

• Ticker: GOOGL

• Company: Alphabet Inc.

• Sector: Communication Services

• Industry: Internet

• Why It’s on My Radar: GOOGL is attempting another breakout after spending months inside a larger trading range, while the broader market improves and the XLC begins to turn.

• Valuation: Morningstar currently rates GOOGL four stars with a $433 fair-value estimate and a wide economic moat.

• Dividend: Yes. GOOGL pays a small quarterly dividend.

• Technical Setup: Price has closed above its 20-day SMA indicating a possibe breakout here while still trading inside its larger range, with an RSI reading of 53.

• What I’m Watching: Whether GOOGL can clear the $360–$365 resistance area for stronger confirmation that it’s ready to leave the larger range behind.

• Biggest Risk: A failed breakout, renewed weakness in the XLC, or deterioration in the broader market setup.

• Growth Story: Search, YouTube, Cloud, and AI remain the core businesses, with Waymo giving GOOGL another potential long-term growth engine.

First, let’s start where every trade should start—with the Big Picture.

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The Big Picture: Market → Sector → Industry → Stock → Fundamental Analysis

You already know how I work.

1. Market first.

2. Then sector.

3. Then industry and stock.

4. Fundamental analysis.

I want as much working in my favor as possible before I take the trade and this week, the pieces are lining up.

1. The Market: The S&P 500 (SPY)

The S&P 500 has closed above its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and is pushing against the top of its current consolidation zone.

If the SPY can break through that zone, another move toward record-high territory comes into play.

For me, the takeaway is simple: The broader market is giving me a better backdrop for a long trade.

2. The Sector: Communication Services (XLC)

Here’s where it gets interesting.

→ Google may feel like a Technology stock, but GOOGL sits inside Communication Services sector , which has been beaten down.

Now price has closed above the 5-day EMA while sitting in its accumulation area.

That gives me the sector confirmation I’ve been waiting for.

Technology has already been running.

→ Communication Services?

I’m watching for what could move next.

GOOGL chart annotation →

3. The Stock: Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)

Now we get to Alphabet Inc. .

GOOGL has spent months trading in the same broad trading range we were watching back in June, with the 200-day SMA continuing to act as an important support area.

Now price has moved above the 20-day SMA. By my rules: The breakout is underway.

The RSI is around 53. Normally, once RSI has pushed into the 50s, I start asking whether I’m late, but look at the chart.

GOOGL is still inside the larger range it has been building for months. So I’m okay with the RSI here.

The next area I really want to see cleared? Roughly $360–$365. That isn’t my breakout trigger.

The move above its 20-day SMA gave me that, but clearing $360–$365 would give me stronger confirmation that GOOGL may finally be ready to leave this larger range behind.

→ The market is improving, the sector is turning, and the stock breaking out.

That’s the confluence I’m looking for.

In other words:

→ this is an amazing buy & hold opportunity to pick up shares of GOOGL, an undervalued / dividend-paying mega-cap Big Tech stock that sits in the Communication Services sector (XLC) to hold for the long-term, if not forever.

→ we can also position trade GOOGL back to true value and beyond and make massive gains.

→ we can take a 2x leveraged swing trade in GGLL for quicker price movements, cheaper share prices, smaller position sizes, and amplified gains (and, losses).

→ if you’re an experienced, astute trader, you can write option contracts on GOOGL and do what you do and make exponential gains.

Link to GOOGL chart

4. Fundamental Analysis: Why GOOGL?

Now let’s get underneath the ticker.

→ GOOGL gives me exposure to businesses people use every single day:

Google Search. YouTube. Gmail. Google Cloud. Gemini, AI, and then there’s Waymo.

Morningstar currently gives GOOGL a four-star rating, a wide economic moat, and a $433 fair value estimate.

In their most recent research, Morningstar also said they believe the market is underestimating GOOGL’s full-stack AI opportunity and currently views the shares as undervalued.

That matters to me, but GOOGL doesn’t need one giant AI moonshot to make the thesis work.

→ Search, YouTube, Cloud, and AI already give me substantial businesses today.

Waymo gives me another potential growth engine for tomorrow and THAT is where this gets fun.

Link to Waymo video above

The Waymo Takeover 👀

Back in June when GOOGL was my Top Pick, I wrote about the potential Waymo takeover.

Four months later?

I’m seeing a hell of a lot more Waymos.

Last week, I drove to Wynwood to grab coffee and take some pictures of the street art and I started counting. One Waymo, then another, and another.

By the time I got home?

→ I had counted 19 Waymos driving around Miami. NINETEEN.

Three days later, I went back out and I counted seven more.

Now, Nurse Jess driving around Miami counting robot cars is obviously not institutional research, but what I’m seeing locally matches a much bigger story.

→ Waymo opened its fully autonomous ride service to the public in Miami earlier this year and Waymo says its autonomous vehicles have now accumulated hundreds of millions of fully autonomous miles.

Announced in April 2026, anyone in Miami and Orlando can download the Waymo App and immediately hail a fully autonomous, driverless ride.

The company has also reported substantially fewer injury-causing and serious-injury crashes than human-driver benchmarks across the areas included in its safety analysis.

Those are Waymo’s own comparisons, so I’m treating them accordingly, but the scale is getting harder to ignore and something else caught my attention.

Waymo and UBER are already working together.

→ In Austin and Atlanta, riders can be matched with fully autonomous Waymo vehicles through the Uber app.

So something I originally viewed as a possible future business model is already being tested in the real world:

1. Waymo brings the autonomous driving technology.

2. Uber Technologies, Inc. brings the ride-hailing platform and fleet operations in those markets.

The question now isn’t whether that model can exist. It’s how far it can scale.

What About The Competition?

Waymo isn’t alone.

• Tesla is pursuing robotaxis.

• Amazon has Zoox.

• Mobileye continues developing autonomous-driving technology and its own AV fleet.

There will be competition and I’m not declaring a winner while the race is still being run.

However, I will say this:

Waymo is the autonomous vehicle business I can currently watch driving around Miami without a human behind the wheel.

That’s hard to ignore and Waymo doesn’t have to carry my entire GOOGL thesis.

→ That’s what I like about this.

GOOGL already has enormous businesses producing revenue today and Waymo gives me another potential business for tomorrow.

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GOOGL or GGLL?

There are two different ways to approach this idea and they’re not the same trade.

1. GOOGL: GOOGL is Alphabet stock.

If I’m looking at GOOGL as a longer-term holding, this is the straightforward way to own the company and it also pays a small dividend.

2. GGLL: The Direxion Daily GOOGL Bull 2X ETF.

For a tactical trade, there’s also GGLL, which seeks 200% of GOOGL’s daily performance before fees and expense and daily matters.

The leverage works in both directions and because the fund resets daily, returns over longer periods can differ significantly from simply multiplying GOOGL’s return by two.

So I don’t look at GGLL as “cheaper Google.”

→ It’s a leveraged trading vehicle with more potential movement and more risk.

GOOGL for the actual ownership thesis.

GGLL for a tactical leveraged trade if you understand what you’re trading.

GOOGL Again? That’s The Lesson.

This might be my favorite part of this week’s Top Pick.

GOOGL was my Top Pick in June. Now it’s my Top Pick again.

Someone could look at that and say: “Didn’t we already trade GOOGL?”

Yep, and? 😂

→ The goal isn’t to collect tickers like Pokémon cards.

I’d rather have a core group of 10, 15, maybe 20 companies I understand deeply than bounce between 100 stocks I barely know because when you keep following the same stocks, you learn them.

• You learn how they behave around the 200-day SMA.

• You learn their accumulation zones.

• You learn their breakouts.

• You learn when they’re running.

• And eventually, you recognize when they come back and give you another opportunity.

Three years from now, I don’t want GOOGL to feel like some random ticker that popped up on a screener.

I want to know how GOOGL trades.

→ That’s how you become a more astute market participant.

And sometimes? The next opportunity is a stock you already know.

The Bottom Line: My Trade Plan

Here’s my setup:

1. Market: SPY is attempting to break higher.

2. Sector: XLC has given me confirmation inside its accumulation setup.

3. Stock: GOOGL has moved above its 20-day SMA, putting the breakout underway by my rules.

4. RSI: Around 53. Higher than my ideal early entry, but acceptable to me while price remains inside the larger range.

Next confirmation: I want to see GOOGL clear roughly $360–$365.

• Valuation: Morningstar currently rates GOOGL four stars with a $433 fair value estimate and a wide economic moat.

• Long-term vehicle: GOOGL.

• Leveraged tactical vehicle: GGLL, which targets 2X GOOGL’s daily performance and carries substantially greater risk.

GOOGL gave me a setup in June and now it’s giving me another one.

→ Same stock. New setup.

That’s why GOOGL is my Top Pick of the Week.

Following a systematic approach, reading market structure, and staying disciplined compounds over time.

Let me know what you’re watching and thank you so much for reading! 🙌

-Nurse Jess 🤝

Know the Big Picture. Focus on the Edge. 👑

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📌 Bookmark this post. Track these setups through the week and see how they play out. This is how you develop an edge—by studying real-time trade ideas and learning what works.

Financial Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. All trades carry risk. Biotech stocks are highly volatile and speculative. Always do your own due diligence and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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I hope you had an awesome week!

ICYMI, you can see the latest Top Pick of the Week here →

A quick highlight from last week →

Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg banged an extreme-high RSI reading and hit its previous high target zone on Friday signaling it’s time to lock in some profits here!! TSM was one of our Top Picks of the Week back on 9/9/26.

Price is still trading undervalued here according to Morningstar. If this was simply a swing trade for you, you could close the trade. If this is a position trade, you could lock in profits and leave some to run because TSM is still undervalued and you also never know how high stocks can go!

Remember, don’t cut your winners too short! Lock in profits, but let your winners run. Congratulations to you in the TSM / TSMX trade!!

Let’s dig into last week’s market recap and the playbook for the week ahead →

👑 BEFORE WE GET INTO THE PLAYBOOK...

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The Leaders Are Running. I’m Hunting The Next Setup.

The Nasdaq is running, Semiconductors are running, and Bitcoin (BTC) is running.

So naturally, I’m looking somewhere else.

Some of our strongest assets are pushing toward extreme-high RSI readings, while underneath the leaders, potential setups are developing in Industrials , Energy , Small Caps , Financials , and a few beaten-down corners of the market.

That’s where my attention is going next and Friday gave us a perfect example of the process.

Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg , my September 9th Top Pick, reached my previous-high target zone and hit an extreme-high RSI reading! So I took some profits.

→ Find the setup. Wait for the trigger. Let the trade work. Pay yourself.

Now I’m looking for where the next opportunity may be developing. Let’s get into the Playbook. 👑

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I. The Market Vitals

Bitcoin (BTC) was the strongest asset on my Market Vitals board this week, followed by the Nasdaq .

They were also the only two that finished green.

The S&P 500 , the Dow Jones , Oil , Gold , and long-term Treasury bonds all finished red.

Leadership is still there.

Participation? Much more uneven.

Bitcoin (BTC) has held its distribution zone, but is now climbing higher and pushing toward an extreme-high RSI reading.

Strong assets can stay strong, so I’m not calling a top.

But at this stage? I’m not chasing it.

The Nasdaq broke out of its zone here, reached a new record high on Friday, and continues to move higher.

The QQQ is firmly on the running side of my board now because the setup already happened.

I’m respecting the strength and letting it run.

The SPY closed above its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and finished the week with a doji bar near the top of its current zone.

Now I want confirmation.

Can the SPY break above this zone and continue higher?

No prediction needed. Let price answer.

The Dow Jones is sitting just above its 200-day SMA and appears to be building a possible accumulation zone, but price remains below the 5-day EMA.

So the DIA is on my radar, but I don’t have my accumulation entry trigger yet.

Setup? Yes. Trigger? Not yet.

Oil continues to hold inside its consolidation zone.

The MACD histogram stopped moving lower, ticked upward, and flattened. Downside momentum has stopped deteriorating for now.

The question is simple: Does oil hold this zone and move higher—or finally break lower?

With Energy setting up above its 200-day SMA, I’m keeping a close eye on it.

TLT was the weakest asset on my board. Bonds remained below its 200-day SMA and currently in a decline, with RSI at an extreme-low reading.

That tells me selling is stretched. It doesn’t tell me the bottom is in.

TLT stays on the radar until price gives me something more.

We have very different parts of the market sitting at very different stages.

• Running: BTC & QQQ

• Potential breakout: SPY

• Possible accumulation: DIA

• Decision point: Oil

• Oversold radar: TLT

→ That’s the “big picture” map.

Here’s how the 7 major asset classes ranked this week

1. Bitcoin ($BTCUSD)

2. The Nasdaq-100

3. The S&P 500

4. Oil

5. The Dow Jones 30

6. Gold

7. 20 Year Bonds Treasury ETF

♥️ Market Pulse: 2/7

• 2/7 assets are up.

• BTC and QQQ are up.

• GLD, SPY, DIA, USO, TLT are down.

The leaders can keep running. I’m hunting what could run next. 👑

II. Section Rotation

The sector board tells the same story as Market Vitals: Leadership is narrow.

Only 3 of 11 sectors finished the week green, while 8 finished red and only four sectors are trading above their 200-day SMA:

Technology , Energy , Financials , and Healthcare .

The other seven are below. So I’m not asking what performed best last week.

I’m asking: What could be setting up next?

Technology was the strongest sector of the week. The XLK pushed to a new high with and RSI around 68, putting it close to an extreme-high reading.

The move is already underway. I’m letting the leader lead.

Energy was the second-best performing sector and is setting up above its 200-day SMA.

Now connect that back to oil. USO is holding inside its consolidation zone and downside momentum has stopped deteriorating for now.

If oil holds and starts moving higher, I want to see whether XLE follows. I like GUSH here.

Financials tested its 200-day SMA and closed back above it.

We also have a doji bar and an extreme-low RSI reading.

That tells me the selloff is stretched at an important technical level, but I don’t have confirmation of a reversal yet.

XLF / FAS stays on the watchlist.

Industrials are sitting right around its 200-day SMA.

Price tested the 20-day SMA, but closed back below it, so the breakout isn’t confirmed. I like the location. Now I need price confirmation.

The setup is developing, but the breakout isn’t confirmed.

The Beaten-Down Side of the Board

Industrials, Communication Services, Utilities, Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Real Estate are all below their 200-day SMAs.

That’s a big chunk of the market still trading underneath its longer-term trend line, but beaten down doesn’t mean buy. It means look closer.

Utilities gave us a perfect example this week and is one of my favorite setups this week.

The XLU moved into my accumulation zone and eventually closed above the 5-day EMA, giving me my accumulation entry trigger. I really like UTSL here.

That led us to Duke Energy Corp. Wednesday’s Top Pick.

Now I’m watching for that same kind of progression elsewhere.

Here’s my sector map:

• Running: XLK

• Setting up: XLE, XLI

• Oversold watch: XLF

• Beaten-down radar: XLU, XLC, XLP, XLY, XLB, XLRE

Technology still has the crown. I’m watching who wants it next. 👑

III. Important Secondary Assets & Industries

Now we go underneath the market.

We know where the leaders are. I’m looking for where the next trade may be developing.

Semiconductors continue to lead. SOXX has broken out and is moving higher, with the RSI approaching an extreme-high reading.

The setup already happened. I’m managing the move, not chasing it.

Small caps are giving me a very different chart.

The Russell 2000 Index pulled back to its 200-day SMA and is building an accumulation zone and price is also above the 5-day EMA.

That puts IWM / URTY on my trade-idea list this week.

While QQQ and SOXX are already running, IWM is sitting much closer to an area where I can define my setup and manage my risk.

This is exactly the kind of chart I’m hunting.

Regional Banks stay on my watchlist as I monitor the potential setup developing in Financials .

If Financials begin to turn, I want to see whether Regional Banks participate.

For now?

XLF and KRE are on my radar. Not a trade I need to force.

Healthcare and Biotechnology both attempted breakouts and they failed.

Price moved back below the 20-day SMA and into their accumulation zones.

That doesn’t mean I throw the charts away. The setup just changed.

Now I’m watching to see whether they rebuild inside accumulation and give me another opportunity.

Here’s the Trade Hunt map:

• SOXX: Running

• IWM: Accumulation setup

• KRE: Developing watch

• Healthcare (XLV) & Biotech (IBB): Failed breakout, back in accumulation zone.

The leaders have already made their move. I’m hunting the charts that haven’t. 👑

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Read more

It’s the ugly one.

The sector that’s been beaten down and the stock trading below its longer-term moving average.

The chart nobody seems particularly excited about because that’s when I start asking: Is the selling finally getting exhausted?

This week, I’m looking at Utilities and my Top Pick of the Week is Duke Energy Corp. .

I’m not trying to call the exact bottom.

I’m waiting for the chart to give me permission to participate and DUK just did.

Here’s the setup →

Start With The Big Picture

The broader market is mixed.

The S&P 500 tested its 20-day SMA Tuesday and closed back above it, while the major indexes ultimately finished slightly lower.

Semiconductors continue to show relative strength.

Meanwhile, Treasury yields remain a major headwind for rate-sensitive areas of the market, with the 10-year Treasury yield reaching levels not seen since 2007.

→ So instead of chasing another area that’s already running, I’m looking at the opposite side of the market.

Utilities have been getting smashed and now they’re trying to get back up.

First Stop: Utilities

XLU, the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund, has fallen below its 200-day SMA.

The RSI recently reached an extreme-low reading below 30.

That’s where my radar goes up, but an extreme-low RSI reading isn’t an entry trigger.

Oversold can stay oversold.

I need price confirmation and now I have it.

XLU closed back above its 5-day EMA while trading in its accumulation zone.

→ That’s my accumulation entry trigger.

Now I want to know if I’m seeing the same behavior underneath the ETF which I am.

Meet Duke Energy

Before we buy the chart, let’s talk about the company behind the ticker.

Duke Energy Corp. is one of the largest energy companies in the United States.

Its regulated utilities generate, transmit and distribute electricity to millions of customers across the Carolinas, Florida, Indiana, Ohio and Kentucky. DUK also operates regulated natural gas utilities in parts of its territory.

In plain English?

DUK owns infrastructure people and businesses depend on every single day and electricity demand is becoming a much bigger story.

Population growth, manufacturing, electrification, and massive data centers are putting more demand on the power grid.

→ Someone has to generate that electricity, someone has to move it, and someone has to build the infrastructure required to support it.

That’s DUK’s business.

Then there’s the income story.

DUK has paid a quarterly cash dividend for 100 consecutive years.

→ So we’re looking at an established utility with essential infrastructure, recurring customer demand, and a long history of returning cash to shareholders.

Now let’s look at what happened to its stock.

Fundamentals Meet Valuation

According to the Morningstar data I reviewed, DUK carried a 4-star rating and was trading at roughly a 13% discount to estimated fair value of $131 when I performed my research and here’s an important distinction:

Below the 200-day SMA doesn’t automatically mean cheap.

1. The chart tells me about the stock’s technical condition.

2. Morningstar’s fair value estimate gives me a separate perspective on valuation.

I want both.

1. A business I understand.

2. A valuation worth investigating and a chart giving me a reason to act.

Which brings us to DUK.

DUK chart annotation →

The DUK Setup

DUK is trading below its 200-day SMA, putting it in an area where I’m looking for potential accumulation opportunities.

Then the indicators started talking.

The RSI reached an extreme-low reading.

On Monday, DUK printed a doji bar after the decline, showing indecision after heavy selling.

Then price did what I was waiting for.

DUK closed above its 5-day EMA.

There’s my accumulation trigger and underneath price, the MACD histogram has started ticking upward, suggesting downside momentum may be beginning to ease.

Put it together:

1. Extreme-low RSI reading.

2. Doji after the selloff.

3. Close above the 5-day EMA.

4. MACD histogram ticking upward.

One indicator doesn’t make my trade.

The confluence does.

In other words:

→ this is an amazing buy & hold opportunity to pick up shares of DUK, an undervalued / dividend-paying trophy utility stock to hold for the long-term, if not forever.

→ we can also position trade DUK back to true value and beyond and make massive gains.

→ if you’re an experienced, astute trader, you can write option contracts on DUK and do what you do and make exponential gains.

Link to DUK chart

Zoom Out

The confluence goes beyond the DUK chart.

This is my process: MARKET → SECTOR → INDUSTRY → STOCK

I’m not starting with DUK and searching for reasons to justify buying it.

I’m working from the top down. Utilities have been beaten down.

XLU reached an extreme-low RSI reading and gave me my accumulation trigger.

Then I move underneath the ETF and see similar behavior developing in individual utility stocks, including DUK, SO, FE, and AEP.

→ That’s what I want to see. The stock isn’t trying to turn by itself.

There’s evidence developing across the group.

The Elephant in the Room: Rates

Now for the part we can’t ignore.

→ Treasury yields.

The 10-year Treasury yield has pushed to levels not seen since 2007.

That’s not exactly a friendly backdrop for Utilities.

Utilities are capital-intensive businesses. Higher borrowing costs can hurt, while higher Treasury yields also make bonds more competitive with dividend-paying stocks for income-seeking investors.

So yes.

Rates are a real risk to this trade, but they’re also part of what makes the setup interesting.

DUK is giving me my technical trigger while the macro backdrop remains difficult.

→ I’m not waiting for every headline to become perfect.

I’m waiting for the chart to tell me something is changing.

What Would Prove Me Wrong?

My trigger has fired.

That doesn’t mean DUK can’t fail.

If DUK loses the 5-day EMA and rolls back toward its recent low while XLU resume their decline, the reversal attempt isn’t doing what I need it to do.

If Treasury yields continue pushing higher, pressure on rate-sensitive stocks could continue too.

That’s why I’m treating this as an accumulation setup, not declaring that I caught the bottom.

My job isn’t to predict the exact low.

→ I need my setup and I need my trigger. Then I manage what happens next.

Price gets the final vote.

Top Pick of The Week 👑

• Ticker:

• Company: Duke Energy Corp.

• Sector: Utilities

• Industry: Multiutilities

• Why It’s on My Radar: Beaten-down utility trading below its 200-day SMA as both DUK and the Utilities sector begin showing signs of a turn.

• Valuation: Below the Morningstar fair-value estimate of $131 in my research.

• Dividend: Yes. DUK has paid a quarterly cash dividend for 100 consecutive years.

• Technical Setup: Extreme-low RSI reading, a doji bar after the selloff, and the MACD histogram beginning to tick upward.

• Entry Trigger: Closed above the 5-day EMA while in my accumulation zone.

• What I’m Watching: Whether DUK can hold the 5-day EMA while XLU’s reversal attempt continues.

• Biggest Risk: Higher Treasury yields putting continued pressure on rate-sensitive Utilities.

• Power-Demand Connection: Growing electricity demand from data centers, manufacturing, electrification, and population growth increases the need for generation and grid investment.

The Bottom Line

Technology is leading and semiconductors are running.

Utilities are sitting on the other side of the market—beaten down, oversold, and finally showing signs of life.

Duke Energy Corp. gives me an established regulated utility, exposure to growing electricity demand, a long dividend history, and a valuation worth investigating.

Then the chart gives me my trigger, but the real lesson isn’t the RSI, MACD or one bar or one candlestick.

→ It’s the process.

Market → Sector → Industry → Stock → Trigger.

Could DUK go lower? Of course.

I don’t need to predict the bottom.

I’m waiting for the chart to give me permission to participate.

This week, it did.

DUK is my Top Pick of the Week.

Following a systematic approach, reading market structure, and staying disciplined compounds over time.

Let me know what you’re watching and thank you so much for reading! 🙌

-Nurse Jess 🤝

Know the Big Picture. Focus on the Edge. 👑

Leave a comment

Previous Articles

Scan the QR code below to subscribe to Nurse in the Market →

📌 Bookmark this post. Track these setups through the week and see how they play out. This is how you develop an edge—by studying real-time trade ideas and learning what works.

Financial Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. All trades carry risk. Biotech stocks are highly volatile and speculative. Always do your own due diligence and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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I hope you had an amazing week!

ICYMI, you can see the latest Top Pick of the Week here →

A quick highlight from last week →

Meta Platforms, Inc. climbed higher and banged an extreme-high RSI reading again giving us a second chance to lock in profits in this trade. META was one of our Top Picks of the Week back in May.

Price is now trading failr valued according to Morningstar. If this was a swing trade for you, you could close the trade. If this is a position trade, you could lock in profits and leave some to run because you never know how high stocks can go!

Remember, don’t cut your winners too short! Lock in profits, but let your winners run. Congratulations to you in the META / FBL trade!!

Let’s dig into last week’s market recap and the playbook for the week ahead →

The Leaders Are Running. Where’s the Next Setup?

Last week, the winners kept winning.

Technology and semiconductors led. Bitcoin (BTC) had a strong week. The Nasdaq , the S&P 500 , and the Dow Jones all finished green, but underneath the indexes, things weren’t nearly as clean.

Bonds struggled. Oil finished lower. Small caps lagged and higher Treasury yields continued to put pressure on rate-sensitive areas of the market.

So heading into this week, I’m not interested in chasing what already ran.

I want to know where the next setup is forming.

Subscribe now

I. The Market Vitals

Four of the seven major market assets finished the week green:

Bitcoin → QQQ → SPY → DIA

While: Gold → Oil → TLT finished lower.

Growth was clearly where the strength was.

The QQQ led the major indexes as Technology and semiconductors continued to run. The SPY and the Dow also finished green, while the Russell 2000 went the other direction.

That matters because when the major indexes are green, but small caps are still struggling, I’m not going to assume the entire market is participating.

The indexes were green. The strength underneath them was selective.

Bonds: Ugly, But Interesting

TLT was the weakest of my seven major assets last week as Treasury yields moved higher.

Technically, TLT remains in a decline.

So why am I watching it?

The RSI is getting close to an extreme low reading.

That does NOT make TLT a buy. It makes it interesting. There’s a difference.

I want to see the selling exhaust itself and the chart begin to improve before I start talking about an entry.

For now, TLT stays on the radar.

Gold & Silver: Don’t Ignore The Red

Gold finished the week lower and that’s exactly why I’m still watching it.

Gold and silver remain in their buy zones below their 200-day simple moving averages, which puts both on my opportunity list heading into the week.

That doesn’t mean I buy them simply because they’re down.

I still need my setup.

Gold miners are worth watching too. They’re still hanging around their longer-term technical levels, and I want to see whether they can hold.

Last week’s loser can become this week’s opportunity, but the chart still has to earn the trade.

Oil is Sitting on The Line

Oil finished lower, but this chart hasn’t given up yet.

USO and $BRENT both tested their 20-day simple-moving averages and closed back above them, which is typically bullish.

So this one is simple.

Stay above the 20-day? The consolidation holds.

Break below the 20-day? We move into a decline.

I don’t need to guess which one happens. I’ll let price tell me.

What I’m Taking Into The Week

The strongest areas of the market are already moving.

Semiconductors are running. Technology is leading. The QQQ has strength.

Good. Now I want to look somewhere else.

I’m watching the areas that haven’t made their move yet—the charts sitting near important levels, the oversold areas starting to get interesting, and the setups that could give us the next opportunity because finding last week’s winner is easy.

Finding the next one before it runs?

That’s the work. 👑

Here’s how the 7 major asset classes ranked this week

1. Bitcoin ($BTCUSD)

2. The Nasdaq-100

3. The S&P 500

4. Oil

5. Gold

6. The Dow Jones 30

7. 20 Year Bonds Treasury ETF

♥️ Market Pulse: 4/7

• 4/7 assets are up.

• GLD, USO, TLT are down.

• BTC, QQQ, SPY, DIA are up.

II. Section Rotation: Technology Takes the Crown 👑

Technology was back on top last week.

XLK was the best-performing sector, followed by Communication Services and Healthcare .

At the bottom?

Utilities, Energy, and Financials.

That’s a pretty wide divide between the leaders and laggards, but I’m not stopping at the top of the leaderboard.

I want to know where the next rotation could be developing.

Technology Is Leading

XLK had the strongest week, with semiconductors adding even more strength underneath the surface.

Communication Services also had a strong week, while Healthcare rounded out the top three.

For now, that’s our leadership: Technology. Communication Services. Healthcare.

I want to see whether they can hold that leadership this week, but some of the charts further down the board are starting to get my attention.

Industrials & Materials Are Setting Up

Industrials are looking interesting on my chart and so are Materials.

Neither led last week. That’s okay.

I’m watching for the setup before it shows up at the top of the performance board.

If Industrials and Materials begin confirming this week, that would give us something we didn’t have last week: strength spreading into more areas of the market.

That’s what I’m watching for.

Financials Were Weak. I’m Still Watching.

Financials finished near the bottom of the sector rankings, but XLF is still on my radar and underneath Financials, I’m watching Regional Banks .

KRE finished the week sitting just above its 200-day simple moving average.

That’s an important spot.

Can it hold and more importantly, can it start building a setup from here?

I don’t care that Financials weren’t one of last week’s winners. I care about what they do next.

Utilities & Real Estate Are Getting Stretched

Now let’s go to the ugly side of the board.

Utilities were the weakest sector last week, and Real Estate struggled too.

Both XLU and XLRE are at extreme-low RSI readings on my charts.

That gets my attention, but extreme doesn’t mean buy. It tells me the selling is stretched enough that I want these charts on my radar.

Now I wait for price to give me a reason to do something about it.

What I’m Watching for Next

Last week’s leaders are pretty clear: Technology. Communication Services. Healthcare.

Now I’m watching the next group: Industrials. Materials. Financials. Regional Banks.

And sitting over on the oversold watchlist: Utilities and Real Estate.

So here’s the sector question heading into the week:

Does leadership stay concentrated at the top or does the market start handing the baton to someone else?

If rotation starts showing up, I want to see it on the chart before it becomes obvious on the leaderboard. 👑

III. Important Secondary Assets & Sectors

Under The Hood: What’s Running & What’s Setting Up?

Now let’s get underneath the major indexes because this is where the differences start getting interesting.

Some charts have already broken out and others are still sitting there, building.

I want to know which is which.

SOXX: Breakout. Running. 🚀

Semiconductors were the strongest area on my secondary ETF board last week and it gave us the technical confirmation too.

SOXX closed above its 20-day simple moving average.

By my rules, that’s a breakout. Now it’s running.

The move already happened, so I’m not treating SOXX like an undiscovered setup.

At this point, it’s a leadership chart.

ARKK & IGV Confirm The Growth Story

SOXX isn’t alone. ARKK also broke above its 20-day SMA and continued higher.

Meanwhile, Software remains above its 20-day SMA.

Put those charts together and the message is pretty clear: Growth strength isn’t isolated to semiconductors.

It’s showing up across multiple areas.

SOXX is running. ARKK is running. Software is holding.

Growth has the baton right now.

IWM is still not joining the party, which finished the week red.

That’s a pretty noticeable contrast when QQQ, SPY, and the Dow Jones all finished green.

Big-cap growth is showing strength. Small caps still aren’t giving us the same confirmation.

That doesn’t make IWM uninteresting. Actually, it makes it more important to watch.

If IWM starts participating, that could be another sign that strength is spreading beyond the current leaders.

For now, the divergence remains.

KRE: Now THIS Is Interesting

Regional Banks are sitting in a very different position from SOXX.

KRE finished the week just above its 200-day simple moving average.

It hasn’t run and it hasn’t broken out. It’s sitting near an important technical level with the potential to build something from here.

That’s the kind of chart I want on my screen this week.

First, I want to see that 200-day hold. Then I can start looking for my entry setup.

XHB: Keep Homebuilders on The Screen

Homebuilders is another chart I’m keeping close this week.

Homebuilders haven’t made the kind of move we’re seeing in semiconductors or growth.

Instead, the setup is still developing and with Treasury yields moving sharply, I want to see how Homebuilders respond rather than assume higher rates automatically decide the trade for me.

Price gets the final vote. If the chart gives me confirmation, then we have something to work with.

Until then, it stays on the watchlist.

The Under-The-Hood Scan

Here’s how I’m separating these charts heading into the week:

ALREADY RUNNING

SOXX — Breakout
ARKK — Breakout
IGV — Holding above the 20-day SMA

STILL DEVELOPING

KRE — Holding above the 200-day SMA
XHB — Setup developing
IWM — Still lagging

And that’s the part of this market I find most interesting right now.

I already know semiconductors are strong.

The chart told us.

Now I want to see which chart speaks up next. 👑

IV. Where I'm Looking Next

So…Where Could the Next Setup Come From?

My process stays the same: We know what’s already running.

Read more

Armstrong World Industries .

They make ceiling systems and architectural products. Not exactly the kind of company that stops you mid-scroll, but the more I researched AWI, the more interesting it became.

Then I went back to McDonald’s and I couldn’t ignore the setup.

MCD is what I call a trophy stock: a globally recognized brand, a franchise-driven business model, a dividend payer, and a company with decades of staying power.

Companies like this don’t always give you the price you want.

Right now, MCD has my attention.

Here’s the setup →

Is The Chart On Sale—Or Is The Business Actually On Sale?

They’re two different questions I ask when a quality stock gets beaten down:

1. Is the chart on sale?

And…

2. Is the business actually on sale?

Those aren’t the same thing.

MCD is trading below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), and the RSI reading has reached an extreme-low level on my chart.

That gets my attention technically, but here’s where Costco helped me see the bigger picture.

COST is another trophy stock trading below its 200-day SMA.

At first glance, you could look at both charts and say: They’re on sale, but according to the Morningstar research I reviewed, COST is still trading at a sizable premium to its estimated fair value.

MCD, on the other hand, is trading below the fair-value estimate in my research.

Same technical condition. Very different valuation story.

Below the 200-day SMA tells me a stock is technically on sale. Fair value helps me decide whether I’m actually getting a bargain.

And THAT is why MCD beat COST for my attention this week.

Then MCD Dropped Again

The timing couldn’t have been better for this research.

MCD shares sold off sharply Wednesday as the company held its 2026 Investor Day and introduced its long-term McDonald’s > NEXT strategy.

One number immediately got Wall Street’s attention: $8.5 billion.

MCD plans to provide approximately $8.5 billion in support to franchisees through 2036, including roughly $5 billion through 2030.

That money will help fund restaurant modernization, technology and operational improvements. Investors saw the bill.

I wanted to know what MCD expects to get for it. Management is targeting roughly 250 basis points of restaurant-level efficiency improvements as NEXT rolls out.

MCD estimates those improvements could eventually produce around $100,000 in annual cash-flow benefits for the average U.S. restaurant. The company is also targeting operating margins in the low-to-mid 50% range by 2030.

So this becomes the question:

Is McDonald’s throwing billions at a problem—or investing billions to make an already massive system more productive?

We won’t know that answer tomorrow, but that’s the story I’m watching.

MCD Is More Than Burgers & Fries

When I call MCD a trophy stock, I’m not saying that because everybody recognizes the Golden Arches.

The business model matters.

Approximately 95% of McDonald’s restaurants are franchised.

That means MCD isn’t responsible for operating every restaurant itself. Its franchise model generates revenue through things like royalties and rent while franchisees operate the restaurants.

Then there’s scale.

MCD has tens of thousands of restaurants around the world, a massive loyalty program, and an enormous amount of customer data flowing through its digital ecosystem, but scale doesn’t make MCD bulletproof.

Consumers are still dealing with higher prices. Restaurant traffic is a concern. Labor and food costs matter and management acknowledged that elevated inflation could continue weighing on customer traffic.

That’s part of the reason the stock is here.

If everything looked perfect, we probably wouldn’t be talking about whether MCD is finally on sale.

Wait…MCD Is Using AI?

Yep, but we’re NOT turning MCD into an AI stock. 😂

AI is a tool here.

As part of Restaurant > NEXT, MCD plans to deploy its GenAI-enabled ArchIQ technology more broadly across its restaurant system.

The goal is pretty simple: make restaurant operations easier and more productive.

That’s the AI connection I find interesting.

Sometimes AI isn’t the product and sometimes it’s the tool a profitable company uses to run the business better.

Now MCD has to prove that the investment pays off.

MCD chart markup →

Now Let’s Look At The Chart

This is where valuation and trading separate.

I can believe MCD is undervalued and STILL not buy it today.

MCD is below its 200-day SMA, and the recent selloff has pushed the RSI to an extreme-low level on my chart.

That’s enough to put it on my radar. It’s not my entry trigger.

For my accumulation strategy, I want the stock in my accumulation zone and then I’m looking for a close above the 5-day EMA.

Why?

Because I’m not trying to catch the exact bottom. I want some evidence that buyers are coming back.

Until I get that, I wait.

In other words:

→ this is an amazing buy & hold opportunity to pick up shares of MCD, an undervalued / dividend-paying trophy stock to hold for the long-term, if not forever.

→ we can also position trade MCD back to true value and beyond and make massive gains.

→ if you’re an experienced, astute trader, you can write option contracts on MCD and do what you do and make exponential gains.

Link to MCD chart

Top Pick of The Week 👑

• Ticker:

• Company: McDonald’s Corp.

• Sector: Consumer Discretionary

• Why It’s on My Radar: Trophy stock trading below its 200-day SMA after another sharp selloff.

• Valuation: Below the Morningstar fair-value estimate of $295 in my research.

• Dividend: Yes.

• Technical Setup: Extreme-low RSI reading on my chart.

• Entry Trigger: Close above the 5-day EMA while in my accumulation zone.

• What I’m Watching: Price stabilization and buyers beginning to return.

• Biggest Risk: Weak consumer traffic and execution risk around the NEXT investment plan.

• AI Connection: GenAI-enabled ArchIQ is part of MCD’s restaurant productivity strategy.

Bottom Line: Why MCD is My Top Pick of The Week

AWI almost won this one and I’m keeping it on my radar because there’s a lot more happening inside that business than I expected, but MCD gave me the more interesting setup this week.

It’s a trophy stock trading below its 200-day SMA.

The RSI has reached an extreme-low level on my chart and unlike Costco , the valuation research I reviewed suggests MCD is trading below estimated fair value.

That’s the combination I’m interested in, but here’s the important part: I’m interested. I’m not triggered.

There’s a difference. I don’t need to predict the exact bottom.

I need the business, valuation and chart to give me enough evidence to act.

MCD has checked the first two boxes. Now I’m waiting on price. 👑

Following a systematic approach, reading market structure, and staying disciplined compounds over time.

Let me know what you’re watching and thank you so much for reading! 🙌

-Nurse Jess 🤝

Know the Big Picture. Focus on the Edge.

Leave a comment

Previous Articles

Scan the QR code below to subscribe to Nurse in the Market →

📌 Bookmark this post. Track these setups through the week and see how they play out. This is how you develop an edge—by studying real-time trade ideas and learning what works.

Financial Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. All trades carry risk. Biotech stocks are highly volatile and speculative. Always do your own due diligence and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Share

Leave a comment

Subscribe now

I hope you had a great week!

ICYMI, you can see the latest Top Pick of the Week here →

A quick highlight from last week →

Meta Platforms, Inc. printed a doji bar on Thursday and hit an extreme-high RSI reading! This usually signals a top is in and a reversal may be underway.

META was one of our Top Picks of the Week back in May. If this was a swing trade for you, you could close the trade. If this is a position trade, you could lock in some profits and leave the rest to run to its fair value target!

META is still trading undervalued here. Remember to not cut your winners short! Lock in profits, but let your winners run. Congratulations to you in the META / FBL trade!!

Let’s dig into last week’s market recap and the playbook for the week ahead →

The Fed Hiked. The Market Split.

The Fed raised rates. The Nasdaq finished green. The Dow struggled.

So much for a simple market reaction. 😂

Last week, Oil dominated.

This week, growth stocks bounced, Health Care went from worst to first, and rate-sensitive industries remained weak.

The headline was the rate hike. The story was what investors bought—and what they avoided.

Let’s follow the money. 👑

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I. The Market Vitals

The Fed Delivered. What Did the Market Do?

The research I’m reviewing reports that the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point to 3.75%–4.00%, with projections suggesting another hike before year-end.

Remember last week’s question?

Buy the rumor, sell the news—or sell the rumor, buy the news?

The hike was widely expected. Stocks initially struggled after the announcement, then rebounded, but the recovery wasn’t broad.

Bitcoin (BTC) led. The Nasdaq finished positive. The S&P 500 was nearly flat, and The Dow Jones lagged.

The charts explain the difference.

QQQ: Closed at $721.45, above its 5-day EMA, 10-day EMA, 20-day SMA and 200-day SMA. RSI is near 56, and the MACD histogram has turned slightly positive.

It’s moving sideways near recent highs, with buyers showing renewed interest.

SPY: Closed at $761.69, above its 5-day and 10-day EMAs but below its 20-day SMA at $762.50. Momentum remains weak.

It’s attempting to stabilize, but there’s still resistance overhead.

Both closed above my 5-day EMA. That’s my initial buying trigger when price is in an accumulation zone, not an automatic buy signal for every stock.

Rates, Oil, & Gold

The supplied research reports that the 20-year Treasury yield reached 5%, putting pressure on borrowing costs.

TLT gained 0.47%, but its chart needs to establish whether that rebound can last.

USO slipped 0.70% after last week’s surge. Its one-month gain remains +17.73%, so I’m not calling the energy move finished.

Gold gained 0.60%, while BTC jumped 4.70%.

The lesson: One week’s performance doesn’t tell the whole story. I want to know where price sits within the larger trend.

Here’s how the 7 major asset classes ranked this week:

1. Oil

2. Bitcoin ($BTCUSD)

3. The Nasdaq-100

4. The S&P 500

5. Gold

6. 20 Year Bonds Treasury ETF

7. The Dow Jones 30

♥️ Market Pulse: 4/7

• 4/7 assets are up.

• SPY, USO, DIA are down.

• BTC, QQQ, GLD, TLT are up.

II. Section Rotation: Health Care Won the Week,But Look At The Chart.

Only Health Care and Technology finished positive.

XLV gained 1.83%, moving from last week’s weakest sector to this week’s strongest, but its chart tells a more cautious story.

XLV closed at $168.39, barely above its 5-day and 10-day EMAs, but below its 20-day SMA at $170.29. RSI is near 50, and momentum remains weak.

I’m watching for a move back above the 20-day SMA. Until then, it’s a recovering sector, not a confirmed breakout.

I’m watching the XLV for a triple leveraged trade in CURE, along with watching the IBB for another triple leveraged trade in PILL.

Technology’s strength looks more interesting when we examine its industries.

At the other end of the board, Utilities , Financials , and Real Estate lagged.

This wasn’t a broad move into defensive stocks. Investors were selective.

III. Important Secondary Assets & Sectors

Growth Rebounded. Semiconductors Are Getting Interesting.

ARKK led with a 5.56% gain, followed by Software and Semiconductors , but their charts aren’t identical.

ARKK: Closed at $88.23, above all four moving averages. RSI is above 60, and price is approaching resistance near $89. I’m watching whether it clears that area or stalls.

SOXX: Gained 2.69% Friday, closing at $533.07 above all four moving averages. Its MACD histogram turned positive, and money flow improved.

That’s a meaningful recovery, but SOXX still needs to clear its recent trading range around $550–$560 before I’d call it a breakout.

Meanwhile, Regional Banks , Homebuilders , and Small Caps remained weak.

KRE: Closed at $72.75, below its 5-day EMA, 10-day EMA and 20-day SMA. RSI is near 38.

It hasn’t met my entry trigger. I’m waiting for price to stabilize and close back above the 5-day EMA within a developing accumulation zone.

Performance tells me where money has been. The chart tells me whether the setup is ready.

IV. Where I'm Looking Next

From Industry Strength to Individual Stocks

My process stays the same:

Read more

I hope you had an awesome week!

ICYMI, you can see the latest Top Pick of the Week here →

Let’s dig into last week’s market recap and the playbook for the week ahead →

Oil dominated, stocks struggled, bonds and gold stayed weak and underneath the major indexes, leadership started shifting.

Technology , Semiconductors , and Communication Services are showing strength while several other areas of the market are starting to crack.

Then Friday gave us another clue. Hot inflation increased expectations for a Fed rate hike—and stocks rallied anyway.

Wait.

Higher inflation. Higher rate expectations. Stocks UP?

Welcome to the market. 😂

So this week, I’m watching two things:

1. Where is the strength?

2. And...where are the cracks?

Let’s get into it.

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I. The Market Vitals (Best to Worst)

Oil won. Everything else was fighting for second.

Let’s start with the big picture.

Across the seven major assets I track, USO was the clear winner while everything else finished red.

The charts tell me what deserves my attention next.

The major indexes aren’t broken, but they aren’t exactly running either, but the SPY and QQQ look like they could be trying to establish accumulation zones.

That’s interesting, but I want to see them hold.

The Dow Jones looks weaker. DIA remains above its 200-day SMA, but it has fallen below its shorter-term averages and momentum has deteriorated.

So while the longer-term trend remains intact across the major indexes, short-term momentum is giving us a mixed picture.

One divergence I’m watching is that GLD is below its 200-day while GDX remains above its own.

I’m not drawing a conclusion from that yet, but it’s on my radar.

Bitcoin (BTC) is still comfortably above its 200-day SMA after its huge August breakout.

Short term, though, momentum has cooled. So I’m watching to see whether BTC is simply consolidating after a major move or beginning to roll over.

The Fed is about to test this market and here’s where things get interesting.

Hot inflation increased expectations for a quarter-point Fed rate hike.

And on Friday?

Stocks rallied.

Why?

Because markets don’t simply trade headlines.

→ They trade expectations.

You’ve probably heard the old Wall Street saying: “Buy the rumor.” Sell the news.”

Markets often position for an event before it happens. By the time the actual news arrives, some of the expected outcome may already be reflected in price.

This week may have given us the reverse: “Sell the rumor. Buy the news.”

Markets spent much of the week under pressure as yields climbed and expectations for a Fed hike increased.

Then Friday’s inflation report made a hike look even more likely—and buyers stepped back in.

That doesn’t tell me what happens next, but it changes the question I’m asking heading into the Fed meeting.

I’m less interested in: Will the Fed hike?

And more interested in: How does the market react if they do?

→ Because the headline tells you what happened. Price tells you whether the market was surprised.

That’s what I’m watching.

Here’s how the 7 major asset classes ranked this week:

1. Oil

2. Bitcoin ($BTCUSD)

3. The Nasdaq-100

4. The S&P 500

5. The Dow Jones 30

6. Gold

7. 20 Year Bonds Treasury ETF

♥️ Market Pulse: 1/7

• 1/7 assets is up.

• USO is up.

• QQQ, SPY, DIA, $BTCUSD, GLD, and TLT are down.

II. Section Rotation (11 SPDR S&P 500 Sectors): Red Doesn’t Mean Equal

Now we move down one level.

Market → Sector.

Energy was the only S&P 500 sector on my board to finish positive, gaining approximately 1.36%.

No surprise there, but look underneath Energy.

Communication Services finished second at approximately -0.47%, followed by Technology at -1.10%.

They were red, but they showed relative strength in a weak market and now the charts are getting more interesting.

XLK is breaking out.

That immediately gets my attention because the strength isn’t isolated to a handful of stocks.

There’s another breakout happening underneath technology in semiconductors.

We’ll get there. XLC is also breaking out.

Unlike XLK, XLC remains below its 200-day SMA, so there’s still work to do, but the direction has changed enough for me to pay attention.

Now flip the board.

Healthcare was the weakest sector at approximately -3.15%, followed by Materials at -2.95% and Industrials at -2.30%.

• Healthcare remains on my watchlist.

• Industrials are sitting around an important area near the 200-day SMA.

• Utilities attempted a breakout, failed, and may be rolling over.

• Consumer Discretionary remains below its 200-day SMA.

So yes, we’re seeing strength.

We’re also seeing plenty of cracks.

→ That’s why I don’t want to look at SPY alone and declare the whole market healthy or unhealthy.

The action underneath it matters.

III. Important Secondary Assets & Sectors

Under the hood semiconductors just got interesting.

Now we move from Sector → Industry and this might be my favorite part of the board.

SOXX fell approximately 2.55% during the performance period we’re measuring.

If I only looked at that number, I might assume Semiconductors were weak.

Then, I look at the chart and SOXX is breaking out.

→ That’s an important distinction.

Performance tells me where money has been. Price action helps me figure out where it may be going next.

Technology is showing strength, semiconductors are breaking out underneath it, and several semiconductor stocks I already follow are trading below the fair values I’m using.

Now we have my attention.

Not every loser is a setup.

KRE was hit hard during the week, falling approximately 3.35%, but Regional Banks may be trying to form an accumulation zone.

That’s enough to keep on my radar.

Other weak areas aren’t giving me the same setup.

• IWM appears to be rolling into a decline.

• ARKK may be rolling over.

• IGV is showing weakness.

• XHB is in a decline and remains below its 200-day SMA.

→ That’s the distinction I care about.

Something being down doesn’t make it cheap and something being cheap doesn’t make it ready.

IV. What Assets & Sectors I’m Watching

Here’s what I’m focused on heading into the new week:

Read more

This week, those two things are starting to come together.

My Top Pick of the Week is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company .

TSM has been on my radar because I believe the stock is undervalued.

Based on Morningstar’s rating, they estimate fair value around $534 per share, compared with TSM trading around $439 on my chart, but valuation isn’t what pushed TSM to the top of my list this week.

→ Price did.

Technology has been improving. Semiconductors just broke out and now TSM has confirmed a breakout of its own.

That gives us something I always want to see:

→ The business, valuation, sector, industry, and chart are starting to point in the same direction.

Let’s break down why.

Here’s the setup →

First: What Does TSMC Actually Do?

Before I invest in a company, I want to understand how it makes money.

TSM is the world’s largest dedicated semiconductor foundry.

Instead of primarily designing chips under its own brand, TSM manufactures semiconductors designed by its customers.

→ That distinction matters.

In 2025, TSM manufactured 12,682 different products for 534 customers, serving markets including high-performance computing, smartphones, automotive, internet of things(IoT), and consumer electronics.

Advanced technologies, 7 nanometers and smaller, accounted for 74% of total wafer revenue.

Think about what that means.

→ There are companies competing to design the next generation of processors.

TSM helps manufacture them and that puts the company directly in the path of one of the biggest technology trends I’m watching: Artificial intelligence.

Is TSM Actually An AI Investment?

Yes, but I think calling TSM an “AI stock” actually undersells the story.

→ TSM is part of the infrastructure underneath AI.

AI requires enormous amounts of computing power. That means increasingly advanced processors. Those processors require leading-edge semiconductor manufacturing and TSM is one of the companies making that possible.

The company is also investing heavily in advanced packaging and 3D chip-stacking technologies such as CoWoS, InFO, and SoIC, which help connect increasingly complex chips while addressing power and performance demands Ad management isn’t being shy about what it sees coming.

TSM entered 2026 expecting AI-related demand to remain robust.

Earlier this year, management was guiding for AI accelerator revenue to grow at a mid-to-high 50% compound annual growth rate through 2029.

By the July earnings call, management said the AI opportunity was coming in even stronger than its previous expectations.

That gets my attention because I don’t have to predict which AI application becomes the next household name to understand something much simpler:

→ More AI requires more computing. More computing requires more advanced chips. Someone has to manufacture them.

TSM sits right in the middle of that chain.

Why Invest in TSM Now?

Being positioned in front of a major trend is nice.

Making money from it is better and TSM’s financial results are showing that demand in the numbers.

In 2025:

• Revenue reached $122.42 billion, up 35.9%.

• Net income reached $55.21 billion, up 51.2%.

• Gross margin increased from 56.1% to 59.9%.

• Operating margin increased from 45.7% to 50.8%.

And the growth hasn’t stopped in 2026.

Through July, TSM reported NT$2.872 trillion in cumulative revenue, up 37% year over year. July alone grew 44.7% from the prior year.

So I’m not looking at AI hype and trying to manufacture an investment thesis around it.

The growth is already showing up in the business.

Then we add valuation.

My fair-value estimate for TSM is approximately $534, while the stock is currently around $439 on my chart.

Does that mean the stock has to go to $534?

Nope. Fair value isn’t a promise.

→ It’s a reference point that helps me ask whether the price I’m paying makes sense relative to what I believe the business is worth and right now, my valuation tells me TSM remains undervalued while the technical picture is improving.

That’s where things get interesting.

The Top-Down Setup

This is probably my favorite part of the trade.

I don’t want to look at a stock in isolation.

I want to know what’s happening around it.

And this week, TSM gives us a clean example of my top-down process:

Market → Sector → Industry → Stock

The Nasdaq-100 has moved back above its 20-day SMA.

Technology has also broken above and closed above its 20-day SMA.

Then we go one level deeper.

Semiconductors have broken out.

And finally, TSM has confirmed its own breakout.

That’s a very different setup from buying a stock simply because it looks cheap.

We’re seeing strength move down the chain and THAT is confirmation I can work with.

TSM chart markup →

What The TSM Chart Is Telling Me

TSM closed around $439 on the chart I’m using.

Price is above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day SMAs, with the shorter-term moving averages beginning to turn higher.

Momentum is improving too.

The MACD histogram has moved positive, TSI has turned higher, and RSI has climbed to roughly 62.

That last one matters.

TSM has momentum behind the breakout, but it hasn’t reached my 70+ RSI area yet.

If it does?

My thinking changes.

I’m not looking at an extreme-high RSI reading and thinking:

BUY MORE.

I’m thinking about locking in some profits.

There’s also an obvious area overhead that I’m watching: TSM’s previous highs around the upper-$460s to roughly $470.

That’s where the chart gets another test.

• Can TSM push through that area?

• Does it consolidate underneath it?

• Or does the breakout fail?

Price gets to answer that question. I don’t.

In other words:

→ this is an amazing buy & hold opportunity to pick up shares of TSM, an undervalued / semiconductor dividend-paying stock to hold for the long-term, if not forever.

→ we can also position trade TSM back to true value and beyond and make massive gains.

→ we can take a 2x leveraged swing trade in TSMX for quicker price movements, cheaper share prices, smaller position sizes, and amplified gains (and, losses).

→ if you’re an experienced, astute trader, you can write option contracts on TSM and do what you do and make exponential gains.

Link to TSM chart

The Bigger Lesson: Confirmation Has A Price

Here’s something newer investors sometimes struggle with:

Waiting for confirmation can mean paying a higher price.

That’s okay. I’m not trying to buy the exact bottom.

I’m trying to find the point where the evidence becomes strong enough that I’m willing to put capital behind the thesis.

Think about our RDDT setup from the last Top Pick.

I liked RDDT’S fundamentals. I liked the valuation and I liked where the stock was beginning to set up, but it was still below its 200-day SMA.

The business had my attention. The chart still had something to prove.

TSM gives us the other side of that lesson.

The business is growing.

I believe the valuation is attractive.

The semiconductor industry is strengthening and now the stock is breaking out.

Would buying TSM earlier have given me a cheaper entry?

Sure, but today I have more information.

Sometimes paying a little more for confirmation is the trade-off for having more evidence that your thesis is working.

That’s not chasing. That’s waiting for the market to show its hand.

What About TSMX?

There’s another way experienced traders may choose to trade the TSM setup.

TSMX provides leveraged exposure tied to the daily performance of TSM.

However, this is where I want to draw a VERY thick line between the investment thesis and the vehicle used to trade it.

My thesis is about TSM.

→ Choosing leverage is an entirely separate risk decision.

Leveraged ETFs reset their exposure daily, which means their performance over periods longer than one trading day can differ significantly from simply taking the underlying stock’s return and multiplying it by the stated leverage.

That can work for you. It can also work against you.

Fast.

So TSMX isn’t simply “TSM with more upside.”

It’s a different trade with different risk.

→ For experienced traders who understand leverage, daily resets, compounding, position sizing, and risk management, it can provide another vehicle for expressing a TSM trade.

For everyone else?

You don’t need leverage to have a thesis.

What Could Go Wrong?

Now for the part that doesn’t fit neatly into the AI bull story.

TSM has real risks.

The semiconductor business is highly capital intensive.

The company is spending heavily to expand leading-edge manufacturing and advanced packaging capacity, including new facilities outside Taiwan.

There is also semiconductor cyclicality, customer concentration, export restrictions, competition, execution risk around new manufacturing technologies, and the obvious geopolitical risk surrounding Taiwan, and then there’s AI itself.

The market is placing enormous expectations on AI-related spending.

If those expectations come down, semiconductor companies exposed to that buildout won’t magically get a hall pass.

That’s why I don’t marry the narrative.

I watch the evidence.

What Would Change My Mind?

The first thing I’m watching is whether TSM’s breakout holds.

A breakout that immediately fails and falls back into the previous range tells me something.

So does deterioration in SOXX.

If semiconductor strength disappears while TSM starts losing its short-term moving averages, I’m going to reassess the setup because liking the company doesn’t give me permission to ignore what price is telling me.

The thesis doesn’t get to overrule the chart.

Bottom Line

TSM is my Top Pick of the Week because I see several pieces coming together at the same time.

→ The company is growing.

AI and high-performance computing are creating significant demand for the advanced manufacturing and packaging technologies TSM provides. R

evenue continues to grow rapidly. My valuation still puts fair value around $534.

And now?

The chart is confirming the story.

• Technology (XLK) has improved.

• Semiconductors (SOXX) have broken out.

• TSM has broken out with them.

That’s what takes TSM from a company I like to a stock I want to pay closer attention to right now.

However. the bigger lesson isn’t about TSM.

→ It’s about process.

• Fundamentals tell me what I want to own.

• Technical analysis helps me decide when.

• And top-down analysis helps me see whether the market around the stock is supporting the move.

I don’t need to predict the exact bottom and I don’t need to chase the exact top.

I need enough evidence to make a decision and enough discipline to change that decision when the evidence changes.

Know the Big Picture. Focus on the Edge. 👑

Following a systematic approach, reading market structure, and staying disciplined compounds over time.

Let me know what you’re watching and thank you so much for reading! 🙌

-Nurse Jess 🤝

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📌 Bookmark this post. Track these setups through the week and see how they play out. This is how you develop an edge—by studying real-time trade ideas and learning what works.

Financial Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. All trades carry risk. Biotech stocks are highly volatile and speculative. Always do your own due diligence and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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I hope you had a great week!

ICYMI, you can see the latest Top Pick of the Week here →

Let’s dig into last week’s market recap and the playbook for the week ahead →

The major indexes held together this week, but the strongest move happened somewhere else.

Oil jumped 9.45% over the past five days, making it the strongest asset in the Market Pulse by a wide margin. USO is now up 22.61% over the past month and has broken out above its 20-day SMA.

That’s a sharp reversal from last week, when Oil’s breakout momentum was cooling.

Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) remained another clear leader, gaining 2.59% for the week and bringing its one-month gain to 24.00%.

BTC tagged an extreme-high RSI reading during the week, so while momentum remains strong, I’m watching whether BTC can continue higher or needs time to cool off.

The major indexes were much quieter.

The Nasdaq gained 0.35%, the S & P 500 gained 0.11%, and the Dow Jones declined 0.18%.

More important than those relatively flat returns though is where they finished technically:

SPY, QQQ, and DIA all closed above their 20-day SMAs.

Last week, SPY was holding its 20-day SMA while QQQ and DIA had closed below theirs.

This week, all three are back above.

So the question has changed:

Can the major indexes break out from here?

Long-duration Treasuries declined 0.43% over the five-day period, but broke out above their 20-day SMA.

→ That’s another short-term technical development I’m watching.

Gold fell another 0.52% and closed below its 20-day SMA while also trading below its 200-day SMA. GLD remains up 8.72% over the past month, but technically, it’s moving in the opposite direction of Oil right now.

The Bigger Picture

Last week, we were waiting for confirmation.

This week, we got some.

The major indexes reclaimed their short-term trends. Oil broke out. TLT moved above its 20-day SMA. BTC remained strong. GLD weakened technically.

For the major indexes, holding the 20-day SMA was step one.

Now I want to see what they do with it.

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I. The Market Vitals (Best to Worst)

Here’s how the 7 major asset classes ranked this week:

1. Bitcoin ($BTCUSD)

2. Oil

3. The S&P 500

4. The Nasdaq-100

5. The Dow Jones 30

6. 20 Year Bonds Treasury ETF

7. Gold

♥️Market Pulse: 4/7

• 4/7 assets are up.

• BTC, USO, SPY, and QQQ are up.

• DIA, GLD, TLT are down.

II. Section Rotation (11 SPDR S&P 500 Sectors)

Energy moved to the top of the SPY sector rankings, gaining 2.20% over the past five days.

That confirms the strength we saw in Oil, but there’s another side to the setup: XLE also reached an extreme-high RSI reading.

The momentum is strong, but this is also where I’m thinking about locking in some profits rather than chasing the move.

Technology remained near the top, gaining 0.86%. More importantly, XLK broke above and closed above its 20-day SMA. Friday ended with a doji bar, so I’ll be watching whether XLK builds on that move or pauses here.

Utilities gained 0.82% and are beginning to set up in an accumulation zone, although the sector remains below its 200-day SMA. Healthcare finished slightly positive at +0.17%, while Financials were flat.

Further down the rankings, some different setups are developing.

Industrials fell 1.06%, but the pullback has moved the sector into an accumulation zone.

Consumer Staples declined 1.02% and have entered a decline, while Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary are both trading below their 200-day SMAs.

XLY was also the weakest sector this week, falling 1.96%.

What This Tells Me

Only four of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished positive, with XLF flat.

That creates an important test for the breakout question from Part I:

If the major indexes move higher from here, does more of the market start participating?

Right now, the indexes are improving faster than the breadth underneath them.

III. Important Secondary Assets & Sectors

The secondary ETFs give us more detail about where momentum is actually developing.

Energy had the clearest confirmation.

Brent crude ($BRENT) gained 6.40% and Oil & Gas Exploration & Production gained 2.57%. Combined with USO’s breakout and XLE leading the S&P 500 sectors, the move is showing up across multiple parts of the Energy trade.

Technology is more complicated.

Semiconductors gained 2.21% and are beginning to set up in an accumulation zone.

Meanwhile, last week’s standout went the other direction.

Software fell 4.5%, making it the weakest secondary ETF I track this week after gaining 5.9% the week before. IGV may be starting to roll over here.

Technology stayed near the top, but what led underneath it changed.

Elsewhere, Regional Banks gained 1.31% and are setting up in an accumulation zone. Small Caps remained essentially flat at +0.09%, but they’re also beginning to set up in an accumulation zone.

Biotech gained 1.42% and continues to show strong intermediate performance.

Gold miners are worth keeping on the radar as well.

fell 0.39% while gained 0.18%, despite GLD itself weakening technically. Both mining ETFs remain up more than 26% over the past month.

What This Tells Me

There’s a difference between a move happening in one ticker and a move spreading across a group.

Energy is spreading and technology is rotating.

And with SOXX, KRE, and IWM moving into accumulation zones, there are now potential setups developing outside the market’s current leaders.

That’s where my attention starts moving next.

IV. What Assets & Sectors I’m Watching

Here’s what I’m focused on heading into the new week:

Read more

I hope you had an amazing week!

ICYMI, you can see the latest Top Pick of the Week here →

A quick highlight from last week →

Airbnb Inc. printed a doji bar on Friday and hit an extreme-high RSI reading! This usually signals a top is in and a reversal may be underway here. ABNB was one of our Top Picks of the Week back in June. If this was a swing trade for you, you could close the trade. If this is a position trade, you could lock in some profits and leave the rest to run! ABNB is trading fairly valued here.

Congratulations to you in the ABNB trade!!

Let’s dig into last week’s market recap and the playbook for the week ahead →

The major indexes stabilized this week, but the bigger picture remains mixed.

Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) continues to show the strongest overall momentum. BTC gained 1.38% over the past five days, is back above its 200-day SMA, and is now tagging an extreme-high RSI reading.

The trend is strong, but after the recent run, I’m watching for signs that momentum is becoming stretched.

The S&P 500 gained 0.47% and continues to hold its 20-day SMA. That makes SPY the strongest-looking major equity index technically.

The question now is simple: Can buyers keep defending that level?

The Dow Jones gained 0.53% and the Nasdaq-100 gained 0.42%, but both closed below their 20-day SMAs. That matters. The indexes finished the week with similar returns, but their technical setups aren’t equally strong.

Meanwhile, long-duration Treasury Bonds gained 1.01% and broke above its 20-day SMA. TLT remains below its 200-day SMA, so I’m treating this as an improving short-term setup rather than a confirmed long-term trend change.

The previous strength in hard assets also cooled. Gold fell 3.42% after reaching an extreme-high RSI reading and closed Friday back below its 200-day SMA.

Oil fell 3.67%, giving back some of its breakout momentum, although it remains above its 20-day SMA.

The Bigger Picture

Last week, money was aggressively moving toward Bitcoin, Gold , and Oil .

This week?

That trade cooled.

Bitcoin (BTC) held its leadership, but Gold (GLD) and Oil (USO) pulled back while stocks stabilized and bonds improved.

So I’m heading into the new week watching one thing above everything else:

Do the major indexes hold their short-term support—or does this pause turn into something bigger?

→ The SPY is still holding its 20-day SMA. The DIA and QQQ have already slipped below theirs. That divergence has my attention.

Biggest Takeaway: The major indexes stabilized, but the technical picture is splitting. The SPY is holding its 20-day SMA while the DIA and QQQ closed below theirs, so the question is whether the indexes can defend short-term support.

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I. The Market Vitals (Best to Worst)

Here’s how the 7 major asset classes ranked this week:

1. Bitcoin ($BTCUSD)

2. Gold

3. The S&P 500

4. Oil

5. The Dow Jones 30

6. The Nasdaq-100

7. 20 Year Bonds Treasury ETF

♥️Market Pulse: 5/7

• 5/7 assets are up.

• BTC, TLT, DIA, SPY, and QQQ.

• GLD, USO are down.

II. Section Rotation (11 SPDR S&P 500 Sectors)

Sector leadership changed this week.

Communication Services led the S&P 500 sectors with a +1.43% five-day gain, followed closely by Technology at +1.30% and Financials +1.08%.

That’s notable because Technology was last week’s weakest sector. It didn’t exactly rip higher, but its return to the top of the rankings tells me growth hasn’t disappeared from this market.

The bigger reversal happened at the bottom.

Healthcare fell 1.98%, going from last week’s strongest sector to this week’s weakest. Energy also reversed course, falling 1.51% after recently showing strong momentum alongside Oil .

Industrials declined 1.73%, while Real Estate , Consumer Discretionary, Materials, Consumer Staples, and Utilities also finished the five-day period lower.

What This Tells Me

This wasn’t broad sector strength.

Only three of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished positive over the five-day period: Communication Services , Technology , and Financials and that gives us another piece of the puzzle from Part I.

The SPY held up, but underneath the index, most sectors declined and leadership rotated again.

→ The market is still making progress in places. It just isn’t doing it together.

That’s exactly why I want to see what the specialized ETFs tell us next.

Biggest Takeaway: Participation is narrow and leadership changed again.

III. Important Secondary Assets & Sectors

The specialized ETFs tell an even clearer story this week: Software stood almost entirely alone.

Software (IGV) gained 5.93%, making it the strongest secondary ETF I track by a wide margin. That fits with Technology returning toward the top of the sector rankings, but the strength wasn’t universal across growth.

ARKK fell 1.88% and Semiconductors lost 2.20%.

→ That distinction matters. Money wasn’t simply rushing back into everything growth-related.

Small Caps declined 1.40%, while Homebuilders fell 1.78% and Regional Banks lost 0.75%.

→ That adds to the narrow-participation picture we saw in Part II.

Energy / also cooled. XOP fell 1.90% and Brent crude ($BRENT) declined 2.30%, confirming some of the momentum loss we saw in USO.

→ However, Gold may be the more interesting setup.

Gold (GLD) closed below its 200-day SMA, while Gold Miners and Junior Gold Miners remain above theirs.

GDX fell 3.09% and GDXJ lost 2.86% this week, but both remain up more than 33% over the past month.

→ That’s a divergence I’m watching,

Do the miners eventually follow Gold below their long-term trend. Or does Gold reclaim its 200-day SMA and confirm the miners’ relative strength?

What This Tells Me

The headline is NOT simply that growth returned.

→ Software returned, semiconductors didn’t, growth didn’t, and small caps didn’t.

At the same time, some of the market’s recent leaders, Gold miners, Energy, and Biotech (IBB) pulled back.

That’s a market with pockets of strength, not broad leadership.

→ Going into next week, I care less about finding another winner than seeing which of these moves actually gets confirmed.

Biggest Takeaway: The market is giving us pockets of strength, not broad confirmation.

IV. What Assets & Sectors I’m Watching

Here’s what I’m focused on heading into the new week:

Read more

I scan sectors, compare valuations, study breakouts, and search for companies trading below what I believe they’re worth.

Naturally, I’m always looking for something new.

A new ticker, a new setup, and a new opportunity.

However, after years of trading, I’ve learned something: The best opportunity isn’t always a new stock.

Sometimes it’s one you’ve already done the work on.

• One you’ve owned.

• One you’ve traded.

• One you’ve watched long enough to know when something about the setup has changed.

→That’s where familiarity starts to matter.

When you follow the same companies over time, you learn their personality.

You know what normal volatility looks like. You recognize how aggressively the stock tends to move.

You’ve seen what happens around earnings. You know when a pullback looks ordinary—and when something deserves a closer look.

None of that lets you predict what happens next, but it gives you context and when you’re putting real money at risk, context matters.

That’s exactly what brought me back to this week’s pick.

I didn’t discover a new company.

I returned to one I already know.

→ A company that’s already in my portfolio and stock I’ve watched through big rallies, sharp pullbacks, changing expectations, plenty of volatility, and after its recent decline, the business, valuation, and setup caught my attention again.

This week’s Top Pick of the Week is Reddit Inc.

Here’s the setup →

Why Reddit Is Back On My Radar

I’m not interested in RDDT because it’s familiar.

That alone would be a terrible reason to buy anything.

The business still has to earn the trade and RDDT’s latest results gave me a reason to look again.

In Q2 2026, RDDT generated approximately $805 million in revenue, up 61% year over year. It marked the company’s eighth consecutive quarter of revenue growth above 60%.

RDDT also reported approximately $253 million in net income, a 31% net margin, while adjusted EBITDA reached roughly $343 million with a 43% margin. Operating cash flow increased 135% to approximately $262 million.

That’s what caught my attention.

RDDT isn’t simply growing its user base and asking investors to wait around for profitability later.

→ The company is already showing that rapid growth can translate into profits and cash flow.

Then the stock pulled back and that’s where the story became interesting again because sometimes the business keeps improving while the stock price tells a much uglier story.

That doesn’t automatically make the stock a buy, but it absolutely earns another look, especially when it’s a company I’ve already spent years getting to know.

The Business Keeps Getting Better

RDDT’s growth isn’t coming from one place.

→ The platform is attracting more users, expanding internationally, and getting better at turning that attention into revenue.

Daily Active Uniques reached approximately 130 million, up 18% year over year, while Weekly Active Uniques climbed 24% to approximately 515 million.

More than half a billion people (500,000,000 people) are now visiting RDDT every week, but the number that really caught my attention was international growth.

International Daily Active Uniques increased approximately 28%, considerably faster than U.S. growth.

→ That’s important because RDDT’s international audience remains less monetized than its U.S. audience.

The opportunity isn’t necessarily about finding millions of new users.

It’s about getting better at monetizing the enormous audience RDDT already has and that’s where advertising comes in.

→ Advertising revenue reached approximately $762 million in Q2, up roughly 64% year over year.

Also, RDDT has something advertisers care deeply about:

→ Intent.

Think about how people actually use RDDT.

• Which laptop should I buy?

• Is this hotel actually worth the money?

• What’s the best running shoe?

• Has anyone tried this product?

• What do people think about this stock?

Those aren’t passive scrolling questions.

→ They’re often questions people ask while researching a decision.

RDDT sits on millions of communities where people openly discuss what they’re considering buying, what problems they’re trying to solve, and what they actually think about products and services.

That’s valuable to advertisers.

As RDDT gets better at monetizing those conversations, especially outside the United States, I think there’s still considerable runway ahead.

RDDT’s AI Paradox

Then there’s the part of the RDDT thesis I find even more interesting →

Artificial intelligence could make RDDT more valuable and more vulnerable at the same time.

AI companies need enormous amounts of data, but RDDT’s value isn’t simply the volume of content sitting on its servers.

It’s the kind of content.

• Questions.

• Arguments.

• Recommendations.

• Personal experiences.

• Niche expertise.

• People explaining why they loved something, hated something, bought something, fixed something, or changed their minds about something.

In other words:

→ Human conversation.

RDDT already has data-licensing relationships with major AI companies, including Google and OpenAI, allowing certain uses of RDDT content for AI-related purposes.

I don’t need data licensing to become RDDT’s primary business for the investment thesis to work.

→ Advertising is already doing the heavy lifting.

→ AI gives RDDT another way to potentially monetize something it has spent years accumulating.

There’s also a bigger idea here.

As more online content is created by machines, authentic human conversation could become increasingly scarce, and increasingly valuable.

RDDT has a hell of a lot of it, but AI creates a risk too.

Historically, someone searching Google for an answer might click a RDDT result to see what real people had to say.

Now an AI-generated answer can potentially summarize that information directly on the search page.

The user gets the answer. RDDT may not get the visit.

→ That’s the paradox.

AI can increase the value of RDDT’s data while simultaneously making it easier to consume some of that information without ever visiting RDDT.

So I’m watching both sides.

1. Can RDDT turn its enormous archive of human conversation into another meaningful source of value?

2. Can it continue building direct relationships with users if traditional search sends less traffic its way?

I don’t know the answer yet, but that’s why AI belongs in the RDDT thesis as both an opportunity and a risk, not a buzzword slapped onto the bull case.

Why I’m Interested Now

A strong business doesn’t automatically make a stock a good buy at any price.

→ Price matters. 👑

RDDT delivered another quarter of rapid growth.

• Revenue increased 61%.

• Advertising grew more than 60%.

• Profitability improved.

• Cash flow surged.

• Weekly users crossed half a billion.

• And then the stock pulled back sharply.

• Price is trading undervalued here.

Investors focused on softer U.S. daily-user growth and disappointment around the pace of additional AI licensing agreements.

That’s when I started paying closer attention because the question isn’t simply:

Did the stock fall?

It’s:

→ Did the business change enough to justify the decline?

So far, I don’t see the fundamental story deteriorating in the same way the stock price did.

Undervalued? Maybe. Cheap? Nope.

There’s an important distinction here.

According to the Morningstar valuation I’m using, RDDT is trading approximately 22% below estimated fair value.

That makes RDDT interesting to me.

But let’s be clear: This isn’t a cheap stock.

RDDT still trades at premium earnings and revenue multiples compared with the broader market. Investors are paying for substantial future growth and RDDT has to deliver it.

So when I call RDDT undervalued, I’m not saying its multiples are low.

I’m saying:

I believe the long-term earnings power of the business may be worth more than what the market is currently pricing.

That’s a very different argument and it comes with expectations.

→ RDDT needs to keep growing its audience, improve monetization, international revenue needs to catch up with international user growth, and all of that growth needs to continue turning into profits and cash flow.

If those things stop happening, the valuation argument changes.

RDDT chart markup →

The Technical Setup & Trade Breakdown

This is where the opportunity gets more interesting, but also where I need to stay disciplined.

→ RDDT is currently trading approximately 22% below the fair-value estimate I’m using and has moved into an accumulation zone on my chart.

That gets my attention, but price is also trading below its 200-day simple moving average, which I consider bearish.

So I have two different signals in front of me:

1. The valuation and accumulation zone say pay attention.

2. The 200-day SMA says don’t get ahead of yourself.

And I’m okay with that.

I don’t need every indicator flashing green before I become interested in a stock. I need to understand what the chart is telling me and size my risk accordingly.

For me, this isn’t about blindly buying RDDT because it’s down from its highs.

I’m watching how price behaves inside this accumulation zone and whether buyers begin stepping in.

A move back above the 200-day SMA would give me stronger technical confirmation that the longer-term trend is improving.

→ Until then, RDDT may be an opportunity, but it’s still a bearish technical setup that needs to prove itself.

That’s an important distinction.

1. Fundamentals tell me why I want to own RDDT.

2. The chart tells me whether now is the right time to add.

• Current Price: $153.95

• Sector: Communication Services

• Sub-sector: Internet

• Fair Value: $200 (22% discount here)

• Entry Zone: $152

• Stop Loss Zone: $135-142

In other words:

→ this is an amazing buy & hold opportunity to pick up shares of RDDT, an undervalued / discounted AI / growth stock to hold for the long-term, if not forever.

→ we can also position trade RDDT back to true value and beyond and make massive gains.

→ we can take a 2x leveraged swing trade in RDTL for quicker price movements, cheaper share prices, smaller position sizes, and amplified gains (and, losses).

→ if you’re an experienced, astute trader, you can write option contracts on RDDT and do what you do and make exponential gains.

Link to RDDT chart

What Could Go Wrong?

There are real risks here.

RDDT still carries a premium valuation, which means disappointing growth can get punished quickly.

Advertising is brutally competitive. Meta, Alphabet, TikTok, Amazon, and plenty of others want the same marketing dollars.

→ User growth matters.

→ International monetization needs to improve.

And AI cuts both ways: RDDT’s human-generated content could become increasingly valuable while AI-powered search could reduce some of the traffic that historically reached RDDT through traditional search.

Then there’s the stock itself.

→ RDDT is volatile.

I’ve watched that volatility work in both directions, and knowing the stock doesn’t make me immune to it.

That’s why “trade what you know” should never become “fall in love with what you know.”

If the fundamentals deteriorate or the technical setup breaks, familiarity doesn’t get a vote.

The thesis always outranks the ticker.

My Investment Thesis

RDDT earned my Top Pick of the Week because I’m seeing something I like to look for:

→ A growing business, a discounted valuation, and a stock entering an area where I’m interested in accumulating.

• The business continues to grow rapidly.

• Advertising is expanding.

• More than half a billion people visit RDDT weekly.

• International growth provides another potential runway for monetization.

AI could make RDDT’s gigantic archive of human conversation even more valuable over time, but I’m not ignoring the chart to make the bull case prettier.

RDDT remains below its 200-day SMA. That’s bearish.

So this isn’t a thesis built on everything lining up perfectly.

→ It’s a thesis built on knowing what I like, knowing what I don’t, and knowing what I need to see next.

1. The fundamentals make me want to own RDDT.

2. The valuation makes me pay attention.

3. The accumulation zone creates an opportunity.

4. The 200-day SMA keeps me disciplined.

5. This is a company I already own, follow, and understand, I don’t have to start my research from zero when the opportunity changes.

I already know what I’m looking for.

Final Thoughts: Trade What You Know

One of the biggest lessons I’ve learned from trading is that more isn’t always better.

You don’t necessarily need more indicators, more strategies, more screens, or another 50 stocks on your watchlist.

Sometimes you need more time with the same companies.

• Watch them.

• Study them.

• Learn what normal volatility looks like.

• Know what drives the business.

• Know what would change your thesis.

• And recognize when price gives you another reason to pay attention.

That doesn’t mean a familiar stock owes you the same behavior it showed last time.

Markets change, companies change, and patterns fail.

→ Familiarity doesn’t guarantee the trade. It gives you context for the trade.

That’s the distinction.

I didn’t choose RDDT because I discovered something new this week.

I chose it because something familiar started looking interesting again.

→ The market will always give us another ticker to chase.

You don’t have to know every stock. You need to know your stocks.

Trade what you know and know why you own it and when the market gives you another opportunity in a company you’ve already done the work on?

→ Be ready to recognize it.

Know the Big Picture. Focus on the Edge. 👑

Following a systematic approach, reading market structure, and staying disciplined compounds over time.

Let me know what you’re watching and thank you so much for reading! 🙌

-Nurse Jess 🤝

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