Nurse State of The Market 6-7-26 Sunday Market Playbook
A top-down analysis and plan for the week ahead.
🤝 NOTE: This week’s market playbook is still free for everyone. I’m releasing a couple of free playbooks and midweek trade articles so you can see exactly what you get in Nurse in The Market before you decide to become a paid subscriber. 😃
Welcome back to your weekly market checkup!
I hope you had an awesome week!
ICYMI, you can see the last top play of the week here →
A quick highlight from last week →
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. AMD -8.21%↓ tagged an extreme-high RSI reading again! AMD was given out as a trade idea in the Sunday Market Playbook on 3/22/26. This is the fifth profit taking opportunity this play has given us and is now trading fairly valued!! Congratulations to you in the AMD / AMDL trade!!
A quick update from last week →
Last week, Substack told me Nurse in the Market crossed its first $1,000 in annual subscription revenue!!
The money is nice, but what means the most is knowing this community exists because of people who chose to be here.
Thank you for reading, supporting, sharing, and growing alongside me. This is only the beginning. 💙
Let’s dig into last week’s market recap and the playbook for the week ahead →
The markets continued to make history last week with all three major indexes reaching new record highs, but the party ended on Friday when all three indexes fell especially the Nasdaq (QQQ) which tanked 4.8%!
This was likely due to technology stocks selling off, particularly semiconductor stocks. The iShares Semiconductors ETF (SOXX) plummeted 10.44% and the Technology select sector SPDR fund (XLK) dropped 6.66%.
The S&P 500 (SPY) had a nine-week winning streak and now price has pulled back. This is typical price movement. Price can only do three things—go up, down, or sideways. Now I’m watching for price to stop dropping and put in some sideways movement.
Both the SPY and QQQ closed below their 20-day SMA indicating declines may be underway. I’m looking out for the confirmation of these declines. The Dow Jones (DIA) maintained its 20-day SMA—closed above it, so it’s still in play here.
Bonds (TLT) lost some of its breakout momentum, but is still holding its 20-day SMA here. I’m watching TLT for a potential trade setup this week.
Gold (GLD) is in a decline and now trading below its 200-day SMA, which is typically considered bearish. Price fell 3.6% on Friday and is trading a near extreme-low RSI reading.
The breakout in Oil (USO) failed. Price closed back below its 20-day SMA, but managed to be the only major asset that closed green this past week. I’m watching to see if price holds here for potential oil trade ideas this week.
Bitcoin (BTC) is in a decline below its 200-day SMA and trading at an extreme-low RSI reading indicating a bottom could be in and a reversal may be underway. I’m watching for price to stop dropping and move sideways for a bit to make sure this is really a bottom here or not.
The Dow Jones (DIA) was the top performing index of the Big 3, while the Nasdaq (QQQ) was the worst. This is a risk-off environment here.
I. The Market Vitals (Best to Worst)
Here’s how the 7 major asset classes ranked this week:
The Dow Jones 30 DIA 0.00%↑
20 Year Bonds Treasury ETF TLT 0.00%↑
The S&P 500 SPY 0.00%↑
The Nasdaq-100 QQQ 0.00%↑
Oil USO 0.00%↑
Gold GLD 0.00%↑
Bitcoin ($BTCUSD)
♥️Market Pulse: 1/7
1/7 assets are up.
USO is up.
QQQ, SPY, DIA, TLT, BTC, and GLD down.
Risk-off environment.
II. Section Rotation (11 SPDR S&P 500 Sectors)
Energy XLE 0.00%↑ was the top performing sector of the S&P 500 SPY 0.00%↑ , while Technology XLK 0.00%↑ was the worst.
The top three performing sectors were Energy (XLE), Health Care (XLV), and Real Estate (XLRE).
The worst three performing sectors were Technology (XLK), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), and Communication Services (XLC). These three sectors are considered the most volatile.
Technology XLK 0.00%↑ took a nose dive on Friday and closed below its 20-day SMA indicating a decline may be underway. I’m watching out for confirmation.
Consumer Staples XLP 0.00%↑ is in an accumulation zone and setting up for a potential trade idea this week.
Health Care XLV 0.00%↑ is on the move and back above its 200-day SMA.
Utilities XLU 0.00%↑ is setting up in an accumulation zone. I’m looking to open a triple-leveraged utilities trade in UTSL.
Communication Services XLC 0.00%↑ and Consumer Discretionary XLY 0.00%↑ are both back below their 200-day SMA, which is typically considered bearish, and have entered declines here.
All 9/11 SPDR sectors are trading above their 200-day SMA here, which is typically a bullish sign. The two sectors trading below their 200-day SMA are the XLC and XLY. I really like XLU, XLP and XLF for trade ideas here.
III. Important Sectors & ETFs
Beyond the main sectors, here’s what stood out this week:
S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production XOP 0.00%↑ lost momentum and price fell below its 20-day SMA and came back into its accumulation zone. The XOP also closed the week in the green just like USO and XLE. I’m looking for potential oil trades this week.
Regional Banks KRE 0.00%↑ is setting up for a potential breakout here above its 200-day, giving us a trade idea this week. DPST is my go-to for a triple-leveraged regional banks trade.
S&P Homebuilders ETF XHB 0.00%↑ is on the move below its 200-day SMA. On any price weakness or RSI dips below 50, you could look to enter or add to your leveraged trade in NAIL.
The Russell 2000 Index IWM 0.00%↑ declined 3.5% on Friday and closed below its 20-day SMA signaling a decline may be underway.
iShares Semiconductors ETF SOXX 0.00%↑ reached another record high and banged an extreme-high RSI reading, but tanked over 10% on Friday. Price closed below its 20-day SMA. I’m watching for a confirmation of a decline or not this week. AMD, SNDK, MU, and ASML gave us more profit-taking opportunities.
The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF IGV 0.00%↑ had an amazing week again! Price broke through its 200-day SMA and banged an extreme-high RSI reading to complete the software trade, which was a long time coming. SNOW has done beautifully here. After the tech sell-off on Friday, the IGV closed back below its 200-day SMA.
Ark Innovation ETF ARKK 0.00%↑ plummeted on Friday and fell back below its 200-day SMA into a decline.
I really like oil, XOP, regional banks, and bonds on any weakness here for trade setups this week.
IV. What Assets & Sectors I’m Watching
Here’s what I’m focused on next week:
Oil (USO): Will price hold here or will it make another breakout attempt.
XLE and XOP are both back in their accumulation zones and were top performers last week.
Dow Jones (DIA): Price hit an extreme-high RSI reading after it finally reached a new all-time high!! It’s no longer extreme here and I’m watching to see if price holds its 20-day SMA this week, or will it climb higher or roll over.
The S&P 500 (SPY): hit another record high, but also dipped and closed below its 20-day SMA
The Nasdaq (QQQ): also reached a new all-time high, but then took a nose dive on Friday and broke through its 20-day SMA. I’m looking for confirmation to see if price goes any lower or not.
Bitcoin (BTC): Will price stop dropping here and find a bottom?
The RSI is at an extreme-low reading indicating a bottom could be in here.
There is a dichotomy here between BTC and mining stocks WGMI 0.00%↑ .
BTC is trading in a decline below its 200-day SMA, while WGMI, CLSK, and RIOT are trading well above their 200-day SMA and tagged extreme-high RSI readings giving us profit-taking opportunities.
Financials (XLF): I’m looking for a potential set up here if price breaks out. I like FAS for 3x leverage.
Regional Banks (KRE): I’m looking for a potential set up here if price breaks out. I like DPST for 3x leverage.
V. Individual Stock Highlights & Winners From Last Week
Profit-Taking Opportunities:
SPY, QQQ, DIA
XLK, SOXX, IGV
WGMI
NUE, GS, IBM, CSCO
AMD, AAPL, MSFT, MU, SNDK, SNOW, CLSK, RIOT, ENVX
Leveraged trades: UPRO, TQQQ, UDOW, SOXL, AMDL, AAPU, MSFU, SNOU
Congratulations to everyone in these trades!
VI. Nurse Jess’s Trade Ideas
Here are the setups I’m watching heading into next week:
1. Main Trade Ideas This Week
TLT (on any weakness)
USO
XLF, XLU, XLP, XLRE, XLE
XOP, KRE, XHB
BX, MCD, NKE, VZ, LMT, NVO, MDT, HSY, PEP, CPB, CE
GOOGL, LVMUY, ABNB, DNKG, RACE, LULU, DASH
CRSP, PFE
TREE
2. Buy & Hold Undervalued Opportunities
These are trading below fair value or set up for long-term entries:
NKE, VZ, HSY, PEP, LMT, CPB, MDT, NVO, MCD, BX, CE
META, RACE, LVMUY, DASH, LULU, ABNB, CRSP, TREE
3. Spec Trade Ideas
CRSP, TREE
4. Leveraged Trade Ideas
TMF (on any weakness)
UCO, OILU, GUSH, ERX
UTSL, DRN
DPST, NAIL
GGLL, LMTL, NVOX
5. My Watchlist
SPY, QQQ, BTC, GLD
IWM, SOXX, ARKK
XLK, XLY, XLC
META, NFLX, TSLA, NVDA, AMZN
SBUX, VZ, ALB, CE
CMG, CAVA, LULU
JOBY, ACHR, CLSK, POET
VII. Trade Breakdowns
This week’s trades are World Cup plays.
Living in Miami has been pretty exciting lately.
Next Thursday, June 11th, the FIFA World Cup officially kicks off, and Miami is one of the host cities for what will likely be one of the biggest global events of the year.
Millions of fans will be traveling, booking accommodations, attending matches, and spending money throughout the tournament.
Whenever an event this large takes place, I like to ask a simple question:
Where is the money flowing?
This week, instead of focusing on a single trade idea, I’m highlighting two companies that could benefit from increased spending tied to the World Cup.
→ One is a sports betting play.
→ The other is a travel and tourism play.
DraftKings (DKNG) gives investors exposure to increased sports wagering and fan engagement surrounding one of the world’s most watched sporting events.
Airbnb (ABNB) offers exposure to the travel side of the story as visitors flood host cities looking for places to stay.
Different businesses and different sub-sectors, but both sit directly in the path of what could be a major global spending event.
Let’s take a closer look at each setup.
1. DraftKings Inc (DKNG)
DraftKings Inc DKNG 0.00%↑ is back below its 20-day SMA possibly coming back into its accumulation zone which gives us an opportunity to add to a current trade or start a position.
If price can break above $27, I would consider the breakout back on and price is on the move.
I really like DKNG here for a position trade to true value.
Profit targets:
An extreme-high RSI reading
First target zone: $36
Previous high target zone: $44-45
Fair value target zone: $45
DKNG got its start in 2012 as an innovator in daily fantasy sports.
Then, following a Supreme Court ruling in 2018 that allowed states to legalize online sports wagering, the company expanded into online sports and casino gambling, where it generally holds the number-two or -three revenue share position across states where it competes.
With its predictive market launch in 2025, DKNG is now live with online or retail sports betting in most all states and i-gaming in five states, with both products available to around 40% of Canada's population.
According to Morningstar, DKNG has a fair value of $45 and is currently trading undervalued.
DKNG is part of the Consumer Discretionary sector (XLY) of the S&P 500 (SPY) and the Gambling sub-sector.
2. Airbnb Inc. (ABNB)
Airbnb Inc. ABNB 0.00%↑ is in an accumulation zone and trading 21% undervalued here.
This is a great opportunity to start a buy and hold position and to put on a swing here.
ABNB transformed hotels, travels, and tourism forever.
Profit targets:
An extreme-high RSI reading
Previous high target zone: $146
Fair value target: $170
ABNB is the world’s largest online alternative accommodation travel agency; it also offers booking services for boutique hotels, experiences, and hotel-like services.
ABNB’s platform offers over 9 million active accommodation listings. Listings from the company’s 5 million-plus hosts are spread over almost every country in the world.
According to Morningstar, ABNB has a fair value of $170 and is currently trading undervalued.
ABNB is part of the Consumer Discretionary (XLY) of the S&P 500 (SPY) and the Travel & Tourism sub-sector.
VIII. Nurse Jess’s Weekend Market Notes
IX. The Bottom Line
The market is entering a possible decline here.
Who really knows? We could bounce back tomorrow!
Don’t force any trades. Let the setups come to you.
I like oil (USO), XLF, KRE, XLP, and XLU for trade setups this week!
I’m watching the QQQ, SPY, DIA, GLD, and BTC. Along with XLK, XLY, and XLC.
I really like GOOGL, ABNB, DKNG, MCD, PEP, VZ, LMT, BX, UTSL, DPST, and FAS here.
Let me know what you’re watching and thank you so much for reading! 🙌
See you Wednesday for the Top Pick of the Week.🫶
-Nurse Jess 🤝
The sector rotation you're flagging, Energy holding while Tech and Consumer Discretionary lead the decline, is the same pattern showing up in institutional positioning right now.
What stands out is that most serious allocators made this shift quietly over the past two months, before Friday's move made it obvious.
The RSI discipline you apply to individual names is doing the same work at the macro level: waiting for the setup, not chasing the narrative.
Risk-off environments tend to reward whoever already moved.