Nurse in The Market Pick of the Week: Quality on Sale!!
How I narrowed two undervalued breakout candidates down to one top pick.
🤝 NOTE: This week’s market playbook is still free for everyone. I’m releasing a couple of free playbooks and midweek trade articles so you can see exactly what you get in Nurse in The Market before you decide to become a paid subscriber. 😃
This week was harder than usual.
Not because I couldn’t find a trade, but because I found two.
→ One operates in the world of private equity, real estate, and alternative assets.
→ The other develops life-changing medical technology used by patients around the world.
Different sectors.
Different businesses.
Different drivers.
Yet the more I studied them, the more I realized they were telling a very similar story.
→ Both appeared undervalued.
→ Both paid dividends.
→ Both were trading below their 200-day simple moving averages (SMA).
→ Both had recently reclaimed their 20-day SMA.
And both were beginning to show signs of life alongside strengthening sectors.
On paper, they looked almost identical, which made choosing between them surprisingly difficult.
I spent more time than usual comparing charts, valuations, dividends, and sector strength.
Every time I thought I had made my decision, I found myself pulling up the other chart and second-guessing it.
That’s usually a sign I’m looking at two quality companies and quality companies trading on sale don’t show up every week.
Eventually, one setup started separating itself from the other.
A soft reminder, this post is usually for paid subscribers.
Here’s the setup →
The Trade: Blackstone Group Inc. (BX)
This week’s Top Pick of the Week is Blackstone Group Inc. BX 0.00%↑ .
While both opportunities caught my attention, BX ultimately offered what I believe is the strongest combination of valuation, dividend income, sector strength, and technical momentum.
In other words:
→ this is an amazing buy & hold opportunity to pick up shares of an undervalued / discounted stock to hold for the long-term, if not forever.
→ we can take a swing trade in BX back to its 200-day SMA for some honest gains and to add some alpha to the portfolio.
→ if you’re an experienced, astute trader, you can write option contracts on BX and do what you do and make exponential gains.
And in a market where everyone seems focused on semiconductor and software stocks, this seems like a no-brainer trade and buy & hold pick up right now.
Blackstone Group Inc. (BX)
Current Price: $118.55
Sector: Financials XLF 0.00%↑
Sub-sector: Asset Managers
Fair Value: $140 (15% discount to fair value)
Entry Zone: $115-116
Stop Loss Zone: $110
Market Context
The S&P 500 SPY 0.00%↑ , the Nasdaq QQQ 0.00%↑ , and the Dow Jones DIA 0.00%↑ are still steadily climbing higher here.
The QQQ is still trading at an extreme-high RSI reading. However, the SPY and the DIA are trading at near extreme-high RSI readings.
All major indexes are still trading above their 5-day EMA and 20-day SMA, which demonstrates strength and momentum in this rally still. There aren’t really any signs of weakness or roll over yet.
Financials XLF 0.00%↑ tested its accumulation zone yesterday, but came back into it and broke out above its 20-day SMA indicating a breakout is underway.
The momentum is in favor here for financial stocks. BX popped over 7% today and closed above its 20-day SMA and entered a breakout as well.
Health care XLV 0.00%↑ broke out above its 20-day SMA signaling a breakout is underway and is trading back above its 200-day SMA, which is typically considered bullish so the tailwind is in favor for health care stocks here.
The XLV was the best performing sector of the SPY today. MDT broke out and popped over 5% today!
Right now, I’m looking for high-quality stocks that are undervalued / on sale here.
Why Invest in BX Right Now?
1. The Stock Appears Meaningfully Discounted
One of my favorite setups is finding a high-quality company when the market is offering it at a discount.
Depending on the valuation model used, BX currently appears to be trading roughly 15% below fair value estimates.
→ That’s the kind of setup I love finding.
→ Great company.
→ Temporary discount.
That immediately got my attention because the market doesn’t often offer discounts on industry leaders forever.
Eventually, sentiment changes.
And when it does, those discounts can close quickly.
2. The Financial Sector Is Starting To Strengthen
I don’t just want a strong stock.
I want a strong stock inside a strengthening sector.
The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) has recently started showing signs of improvement, suggesting money may be rotating back into financials.
That matters because when both the stock and the sector are moving in the same direction, the probability of success often improves.
3. Technical Momentum Is Improving
From a technical perspective, BX is beginning to look much healthier.
Price recently closed above its 20-day SMA, signaling a potential breakout may be underway
More importantly, this appears early in the move.
The stock remains below its 200-day SMA, which suggests there may still be room for additional upside if momentum continues building.
Whether you’re looking for a swing trade or a longer-term position, the setup offers something both groups care about:
Opportunity before the move becomes obvious.
4. Investors Get Paid While They Wait
BX also pays a dividend.
That means investors can collect income while allowing the thesis time to develop.
That’s never the reason I take a trade, but it’s certainly a nice bonus!!
BX chart markup →
BX Technical Setup & Analysis
A breakout is underway in BX here indicated by price closing above its 20-day SMA.
BX is in a breakout buy zone below its 200-day SMA giving us a beautiful opportunity to add to an undervalued buy and hold position along with opening a simple swing trade back to its 200-day SMA.
Pattern: price closed above its 20-day SMA signaling a breakout is likely underway
Price closing above its 20-day SMA confirms it’s the last time to add shares or enter the trade.
The RSI is 50 so this is usually the last chance to add shares here.
Typically, once the RSI gets above 50, the trade is past a buy point, but to add shares to a buy and hold position, this is a perfect setup!
The MACD histogram is ticking upwards towards the bullish side indicating the momentum is in favor here.
Key Support: $113 and $105
Ideal Entry: $115-116
Stop loss: If price breaks below $110, exit.
If it holds and XLF continues breaking out, you’ve got room to run.
Targets:
200-day SMA target
$140 (fair value target)
Extreme-high RSI reading greater than 70.
Position Sizing:
Position sizes: 1-3% for buy-and-hold; 1-2% for swing trades.
Why BX Won
At first, I thought this week’s decision would come down to valuation.
It didn’t.
→ Both companies looked cheap.
→ Both paid dividends.
→ Both were beginning to improve technically.
However, the more I compared them, the more I kept coming back to one thing:
Momentum.
The financial sector appears to be strengthening faster than healthcare right now and BX wasn’t simply showing improving fundamentals.
It was showing improving momentum inside an improving sector.
That’s the combination I wanted.
In other words:
→ MDT looked good.
→ BX looked ready.
And that distinction ultimately gave BX the edge.
Bonus Trade Idea: Medtronic, Inc. (MDT)
If BX earned the top spot this week, Medtronic, Inc. MDT 0.00%↑ wasn’t far behind.
In fact, this was one of the closest Top Pick of the Week decisions I’ve made in a while.
MDT currently appears to be trading at a meaningful discount to fair value estimates.
The company pays a dividend.
The chart is beginning to improve.
And the healthcare sector has recently started showing signs of strength.
Targets:
200-day SMA target
$112 (fair value target)
$104 (previous high zone target)
Extreme-high RSI reading greater than 70.
Position Sizing:
Position sizes: 1-3% for buy-and-hold; 1-2% for swing trades.
What Does MDT Do?
MDT is one of the world’s largest medical device companies.
Its products help physicians manage diabetes, improve heart health, treat chronic disease, and perform life-saving procedures around the world.
Unlike many healthcare companies that depend heavily on drug pipelines, MDT benefits from ongoing demand for medical devices and long-term demographic trends such as an aging population.
Those are powerful tailwinds.
Why It Didn’t Win
This wasn’t a rejection of MDT.
Quite the opposite.
I think MDT remains one of the more attractive healthcare opportunities on my watchlist.
It simply lost this week’s head-to-head matchup with BX and sometimes that’s all it comes down to.
MDT remains firmly on my radar and could easily become a future Top Pick of the Week.
Final Thoughts
The market loves talking about exciting companies.
I prefer finding great companies when nobody wants them.
That’s exactly what both BX and MDT looked like this week.
This wasn’t about finding a good company.
It was about choosing between two of them.
Both are worth watching, but when valuation, dividend income, sector strength, and momentum were all put on the table, BX earned the edge.
And in a market where quality is increasingly difficult to find on sale, that was enough.
Stay one step ahead of the market.
Following a systematic approach, reading market structure, and staying disciplined compounds over time.
Let me know what you’re watching and thank you so much for reading! 🙌
-Nurse Jess 🤝
📌 Bookmark this post. Track these setups through the week and see how they play out. This is how you develop an edge—by studying real-time trade ideas and learning what works.
Financial Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. All trades carry risk. Biotech stocks are highly volatile and speculative. Always do your own due diligence and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Thanks Jess, great picks!