Top Pick of The Week: The Next Layer of the Autonomous Vehicle Trade
Why Mobileye caught my attention after seeing Waymo everywhere in Miami.
A few months ago, seeing a Waymo in Miami felt unusual.
Now it feels unusual when I don’t see one.
The other morning alone, I counted three.
One was black, one was white, and one was wrapped in a colorful mural.
Somewhere along the way, I stopped looking at them as a novelty.
I started looking at them as evidence.
Evidence that autonomous driving is quietly moving from experiment to everyday life.
Last week, that observation led me to Alphabet Inc. GOOGL 0.00%↑ .
Waymo was the obvious story, but after publishing that article, I couldn’t stop thinking about a different question.
Not:
Who wins autonomous vehicles?
But:
Who wins because autonomous vehicles become mainstream?
I think that’s the more interesting investment question.
Every major technological revolution creates an ecosystem.
The smartphone didn’t just create Apple, Inc. AAPL 0.00%↑ .
It created semiconductor companies, app developers, cloud providers, payment processors, and accessory manufacturers.
Entire businesses that didn’t exist before smartphones became part of everyday life.
Artificial intelligence is following the same pattern.
There won’t be one winner.
There will be an ecosystem of winners and I believe autonomous driving may follow that same path.
→ Waymo may become one of the most recognizable names.
→ Uber Technologies, Inc. UBER 0.00%↑ may become one of the largest demand platforms.
→ Tesla Inc. TSLA 0.00%↑ may continue pushing the industry forward.
However, behind every autonomous vehicle is another layer.
The companies building the intelligence.
The software.
The vision systems.
The mapping technology.
The safety infrastructure.
Those companies may end up benefiting just as much as the names making headlines.
That’s where I found this week’s Top Pick of the Week— Mobileye Global Inc. MBLY 0.00%↑ .
Here’s the setup →
Why Mobileye Is Different
Most people have never heard of Mobileye (MBLY).
Ironically, they’ve probably benefited from its technology without realizing it.
MBLY develops advanced driver-assistance systems—commonly called ADAS—as well as autonomous driving technology that helps vehicles understand the world around them.
Think of it this way.
A human driver constantly processes information.
We recognize traffic lights, we notice pedestrians, and we judge distance.
We stay inside our lane and we predict what the driver ahead of us might do next.
Autonomous vehicles have to learn how to do all of those things.
That’s where MBLY comes in. Its technology helps vehicles see, interpret, and respond to the road in real time.
That includes identifying:
Lane markings
Pedestrians
Cyclists
Traffic lights
Stop signs
Road edges
Construction zones
Other vehicles
Unexpected hazards
And then making safe driving decisions within fractions of a second.
That’s incredibly difficult and it’s one reason autonomous driving has taken longer to develop than many people expected.
What I like about MBLY is that it isn’t a speculative company hoping autonomous driving eventually becomes important.
Its technology is already deployed in millions of vehicles around the world through relationships with major automakers.
In other words...the company isn’t waiting for autonomy to arrive.
It’s already participating in it.
That gives MBLY something many autonomous driving companies don’t have.
Real-world experience, real-world driving data, and years of experience solving safety problems long before fully autonomous vehicles become common.
To me, that’s an edge and a meaningful competitive advantage.
Every Technology Revolution Has Layers
One mistake investors often make is assuming the biggest opportunity is always the company everyone can see.
History says otherwise.
When smartphones became mainstream...AAPL won; however, so did companies making chips.
Cloud infrastructure.
App marketplaces.
Digital payments.
Accessories.
Mobile software.
The same thing happened with the internet and we’re watching it happen again with artificial intelligence.
Autonomous driving won’t be any different.
There won’t be one winner.
There will be an ecosystem.
Some companies will build the vehicles.
Others will provide the software.
Others will manage fleets.
Others will build mapping systems.
Others will provide mobility services.
And that’s exactly why MBLY caught my attention.
It sits underneath much of the technology making autonomous driving possible.
That isn’t always the flashiest position; however, sometimes the companies building the infrastructure become some of the most valuable businesses over time.
Why This Trade Matters
For years, MBLY has primarily been known as a technology supplier.
It built the systems that help automakers make vehicles smarter and safer.
That’s already a meaningful business, but something is beginning to change.
MBLY isn’t simply trying to supply autonomous technology anymore.
It’s preparing to become an operator and I think that’s a much bigger story.
Instead of only selling technology to automakers, MBLY wants to prove its autonomous driving platform can power its own robotaxi operation.
That changes the investment thesis.
→ A supplier earns revenue by selling products.
→ An operator has the potential to generate recurring transportation revenue, manage fleets, build rider relationships, and participate directly in the economics of autonomous mobility.
That’s a completely different opportunity and that’s when MBLY became much more interesting to me.
The Robotaxi Catalyst
One of the biggest reasons MBLY caught my attention is that the company is preparing to move beyond supplying autonomous driving technology and into operating its own robotaxi business.
Management recently announced plans to launch a vertically integrated robotaxi service in a major U.S. metropolitan market beginning in 2027.
The initial deployment is expected to start with approximately 100 vehicles.
Now, let’s be honest.
One hundred robotaxis isn’t going to change the world overnight, but every major technological rollout starts somewhere.
Amazon.com, Inc. AMZN 0.00%↑ didn’t begin with nationwide fulfillment centers.
UBER didn’t launch in every city.
TSLA didn’t produce millions of vehicles in its first year.
Successful businesses prove the model first.
Then they scale.
That’s why I find this announcement interesting.
For the first time, investors have a real milestone to watch.
Not a vague promise and not a futuristic concept.
→ A planned deployment with a timeline.
Execution risk absolutely remains.
Launching a robotaxi business is difficult and scaling one is even harder.
However, I would rather evaluate a company working toward a measurable goal than one simply talking about what might happen someday.
Another Piece Of The Puzzle: Moovit
As I continued researching MBLY, I found another piece of the story that most investors probably overlook.
MBLY owns Moovit.
At first glance, it doesn’t seem that important.
Then you think about what the company actually does.
Building autonomous vehicles is only half the challenge.
Someone still has to manage the fleet.
Coordinate routes.
Optimize trips.
Reduce wait times.
Balance supply and demand.
Integrate with cities.
Support riders.
That’s exactly the type of problem Moovit helps solve.
Suddenly this isn’t just a company building autonomous driving technology.
It’s building pieces of an entire mobility ecosystem.
That caught my attention because the companies that win major technological shifts often solve more than one problem.
They build platforms.
The AI Story Most People Miss
When people hear “AI,” they usually think about chatbots.
Image generators.
Virtual assistants.
Large language models.
MBLY is using AI in a completely different way. Its AI has to understand the physical world.
Every second, autonomous vehicles need to recognize lane markings.
Traffic lights.
Cyclists.
Construction zones.
Pedestrians.
Road debris.
Then they need to predict what those objects might do next and then they need to make safe driving decisions almost instantly.
That’s an entirely different level of artificial intelligence.
The consequences aren’t a bad chatbot response and the consequences are happening at highway speeds.
That’s what makes MBLY interesting.
This isn’t AI creating text.
It’s AI making real-world decisions and I think that becomes increasingly valuable as autonomous driving continues to mature.
Why Invest In MBLY Right Now?
1. The Stock Has Already Been Through A Reset
One thing I try to avoid is buying into excessive excitement.
MBLY isn’t trading like the market’s favorite AI stock.
It’s a company that has already disappointed investors, reset expectations, and spent time rebuilding confidence.
That’s often where I begin paying attention.
Not when everyone is optimistic, but when expectations have become more realistic while the long-term opportunity still exists.
2. The Core Business Is Improving
One encouraging sign is that MBLY’s core ADAS business continues showing signs of strength.
The company recently reported improving revenue trends and raised its full-year outlook after stronger-than-expected demand.
That tells me this isn’t a story built entirely on robotaxis.
The business people often forget about is still growing and that’s important because future opportunities are much easier to pursue when today’s business remains healthy.
3. A Clear Robotaxi Catalyst
One thing markets like is visibility.
Investors now have a specific milestone to watch.
A planned U.S. robotaxi launch in 2027 gives the market something tangible to evaluate.
Will it succeed?
Nobody knows, but successful investing isn’t about certainty.
It’s about identifying opportunities before everyone agrees.
4. Valuation
Another reason MBLY stands out is valuation.
The stock appears to be trading below several fair value estimates, suggesting investors may still be discounting much of its long-term autonomous driving opportunity.
I like finding companies where expectations have already cooled while the long-term thesis remains intact.
Those setups don’t always work, but when they do, they can be rewarding.
5. Multiple Ways To Win
What I like most about MBLY is that the investment thesis doesn’t depend on a single outcome.
The company has exposure to:
Advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS)
Autonomous driving software
Computer vision
Mapping technology
Mobility operations through Moovit
Planned robotaxi deployment
Artificial intelligence
That’s a lot of optionality inside one company.
6. Technical Setup
MBLY is entering a breakout and trading fairly valued here.
Current Price: $9.68
Sector: Technology XLK 0.00%↑
Sub-sector: Electronic Equipment
Fair Value: $12.18
Entry Zone: $8.40-8.50
Stop Loss Zone: $7.50
In other words:
→ this is a nice opportunity to pick up shares of a speculation play to buy and hold for the long-term, if not forever.
→ we can also position trade MBLY to true value and beyond and make massive gains.
→ if you’re an experienced, astute trader, you can write option contracts on MBLY and do what you do and make exponential gains.
The Risk
This isn’t a low-risk investment and I think it’s important to acknowledge that.
MBLY is much more concentrated than GOOGL.
GOOGL has Search.
YouTube.
Google Cloud.
Android.
Gemini.
Advertising.
Waymo.
MBLY doesn’t have that level of diversification.
Its future depends much more heavily on continued adoption of autonomous driving technology.
If robotaxis take longer than expected...
If competition intensifies...
If execution falls short...
The stock could remain under pressure.
That’s the reality.
I don’t view MBLY as the conservative way to invest in autonomous vehicles.
I view it as the higher-risk, higher-upside infrastructure play inside the ecosystem.
My Thesis
Last week, I wrote about one of the companies everyone can see.
This week, I’m writing about one of the companies many investors haven’t thought about yet.
That distinction matters.
→ Waymo represents what autonomous driving looks like on the surface.
→ MBLY represents much of what makes it possible underneath.
I believe autonomous vehicles will create an ecosystem of winners rather than a single dominant company and MBLY has positioned itself in several important parts of that ecosystem.
The company has years of experience developing advanced driver-assistance technology.
It has relationships with global automakers.
It owns mobility infrastructure through Moovit.
It has a planned robotaxi deployment.
And it continues applying artificial intelligence to one of the most complex engineering problems of our generation.
Could the market still be underestimating that opportunity?
I think it’s possible.
That’s why MBLY earned this week’s Top Pick of the Week.
Final Thoughts
The best investment ideas don’t always begin with a stock screen.
Sometimes they begin with paying attention.
Last week, I couldn’t stop noticing Waymo vehicles driving around Miami.
That observation led me to Alphabet GOOGL 0.00%↑ , but it also led me to a bigger realization.
Every technological revolution creates the companies everyone talks about and the companies quietly building the infrastructure behind the scenes.
Those quieter companies don’t always receive the headlines.
Sometimes they become the opportunity.
Autonomous vehicles are no longer a futuristic concept.
They’re operating on real streets in real cities with real passengers.
The question isn’t whether autonomy is beginning to arrive.
I think it already is.
The question is which companies will quietly become essential as that future continues unfolding.
For me, Mobileye Global Inc. MBLY 0.00%↑ is one of the answers worth watching.
Stay one step ahead of the market.
Following a systematic approach, reading market structure, and staying disciplined compounds over time.
Let me know what you’re watching and thank you so much for reading! 🙌
-Nurse Jess 🤝
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Top Pick of The Week: The Future Is Already Driving Around Miami
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