Nurse State of The Market 3-22-26 Sunday Market Playbook
Welcome to the second official Nurse in the Market Sunday Market Playbook!!
Welcome back to the Nurse in the Market Sunday Playbook.
This week was rough. All three major indices entered stage 4 declines and closed below their 200-day SMAs—a significant bearish shift.
Gold (GLD) got hammered (down 10%+). Precious metals carnage across the board. Bitcoin’s ($BCTUSD) breakout failed.
But here’s the flip side: we now have extreme-low RSI readings everywhere.
Gold (GLD), the Dow Jones (DIA), six SDPR sectors, Home Depot (HD), and more. These are potential reversal opportunities for contrarian investors.
Oil (USO), Crude oil ($BRENT), and SPDR S&P Oil & Gas (XOP) stayed stretched and are still trading at extreme-high RSI readings.
The Energy sector (XLE) led again. And doji bars showed up all over the place on Friday, which are potential indecision signals that could mark turning points.
The key question: Are these extreme-low RSI readings the start of a bottom forming, or is more pain ahead?
Let’s break it down.
I. THE MARKET VITALS (Best to Worst)👩🏻⚕️📊
♥️Market Pulse: 4/7 Mixed (Oil Leading, Major Indices Declining)
Here’s how the 7 major asset classes ranked this week:
Oil (USO): BEST PERFORMER Still trading at an extreme-high RSI reading. 🚨 Crude oil ($BRENT) also hit an extreme-high RSI, popped 9% over the week. Energy (XLE) continues to lead, but is stretched. Time to lock in profits and leave some to run.
Bitcoin ($BTCUSD): ❌ Breakout lost momentum. Closed below its 20-day SMA and came back into its accumulation zone. I’m watching to see if prices hold its accumulation zone here or if it goes lower.
20 Year Bonds Treasury ETF (TLT): Broke accumulation zone, entered possible stage 4 decline. Closed below 200-day SMA ⚠️ — Bearish signal. Bonds breaking down.
S&P 500 (SPY): Best of the major 3 indices. Entered a stage 4 decline, closed below 200-day SMA ⚠️ — This is a major shift. The SPY breaking below its 200-day is a red flag.🚩
The Nasdaq(QQQ): Entered Stage 4 decline, closed below 200-day SMA ⚠️ — Tech-heavy index breaking down alongside the broader market.
Gold (GLD): Fell over 10% on the week! 📉 — Banged an extreme-low RSI reading of 29 🚨, still above 200-day SMA. Precious metals got crushed. Reversal opportunity? Let’s see!
The Dow Jones 30 (DIA): WORST PERFORMER. Entered Stage 4 decline, closed below 200-day SMA. Hit an Extreme-low RSI reading of 25. 🚨 — Potential reversal signal if support holds.
📈Secondary Assets to Watch:
The Russell 2000 Index (IWM): Stage 4 decline just like the major 3 indices, but still holding above 200-day SMA. Not as bad yet, but watch closely.
👩🏻💻What This Means:
This is the big story of the week: ALL THREE major indices (SPY, QQQ, DIA) entered stage 4 declines below their 200-day SMAs. This is a major bearish shift.
Oil (USO) still stretched (at an extreme-high RSI: lock in profits).
Bitcoin (BTC failed its breakout.
Bonds (TLT) breaking down.
Gold crushed (GLD) (extreme-low RSI — opportunity?).
But here’s where it gets interesting: The Dow hit extreme-low RSI of 25. Gold (GLD) at 29. These are reversal signals if support holds.
II. SECTOR ROTATION (11 SPDR S&P 500 Sectors)👩🏻⚕️🔄
Top 3 Performers:
Energy (XLE): #1 best performer.
Financials (XLF)
Technology (XLK)
Bottom 3 Performers:
Consumer Staples (XLP)
Materials (XLB): .
Utilities (XLU): Worst performer, tanked 4% on Friday.
Key Sector Observations:
🚨 MASSIVE Extreme-Low RSI Readings Across 6 Sectors!
These sectors all hit extreme-low RSI readings this week, which indicate potential reversal opportunities:
Consumer Staples (XLP): RSI 29, Stage 4 decline, above 200-day SMA.
Health Care (XLV): Extreme-low RSI, above 200-day SMA.
Materials (XLB): Extreme-low RSI, above 200-day SMA.
Retail (XRT): Extreme-low RSI, below 200-day SMA.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY): Extreme-low RSI, below 200-day SMA.
Real Estate (XLRE): Extreme-low RSI, fell 3.17% Friday, below 200-day SMA.
📉 Friday Selloffs:
Utilities (XLU): Tanked 4% on Friday!
Real Estate (XLRE): Fell 3.17% on Friday!
⚠️ Technology (XLK):
Broke accumulation zone, closed below 200-day SMA.
RSI 40 (not extreme yet, but weakening).
Below 200-day SMA (Weakest Sectors):
XLY, XRT, XLK, XLC, XLRE
Above 200-day SMA (Holding Support):
XLU, XLB, XLP, XLV, XLI
👩🏻💻The Sector Story:
Energy (XLE) still leading, but running hot.
Tech (XLK) broke below 200-day SMA. Financials (XLF) holding up in the top 3.
But the big story? Six sectors hit extreme-low RSI readings.
Defensive sectors getting hammered (utilities tanked 4%, consumer staples at RSI 29, materials extreme-low RSI).
These are potential reversal setups if support holds.
III. IMPORTANT SECTORS & ETFs 👩🏻⚕️🔍
Beyond the main sectors, here’s what stood out this week:
🚨 XOP (Oil & Gas Exploration):
Up over 5% on the week
Extreme-high RSI 🚨 — Take profits or tighten stops. Energy is stretched.
📉 Precious Metals Carnage:
This was brutal. Gold (GLD), gold miners (GDX), and silver (SLV) all got crushed:
Gold Miners (GDX):
Down 14% on the week!
Entered stage 4 decline.
Extreme-low RSI 🚨.
Stopped above 200-day SMA (holding support).
Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ):
Down 15% on the week!
Entered stage 4 decline.
Extreme-low RSI 🚨.
Stopped above 200-day SMA (holding support).
Silver (SLV):
Down 15% on the week.
Tanked 6.3% on Friday!
Broke accumulation zone.
Still above 200-day SMA.
⚠️ Growth & Tech ETFs:
Semiconductors (SOXX):
May be falling out of accumulation zone.
Still above 200-day SMA, closed green on the week.
Watch for breakdown or hold.
Growth/Innovation (ARKK):
Breakout FAILED, back in accumulation zone.
Watching if price holds anchor point or rolls into decline.
Software (IGV):
Breakout lost momentum, closed below 20-day SMA.
Another failed breakout.
💡 Regional Banks (KRE):
Flat on the week, trading along 200-day SMA.
RSI 32 (getting into reversal territory).
Printed doji bar on Friday (potential reversal signal).
👩🏻💻The ETF Story:
Oil/energy still running on high extreme RSI. (XOP extreme RSI; make sure to lock in those profits).
Precious metals got absolutely destroyed! Gold miners (GDX) and Silver (SLV) all hit extreme-low RSI readings. These are potential reversal opportunities if the 200-day SMA support holds.
Growth breakouts failing everywhere (ARKK, IGV, BTC). Semis (SOXX) holding, but weakening.
Regional banks (KRE) showing potential reversal signal (doji + RSI 32).
IV: WHAT ASSETS & SECTORS I’M WATCHING 👩🏻⚕️🎯
Here’s what I’m focused on heading into next week:
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