Welcome back to the Nurse in the Market Sunday Playbook, your weekly market checkup and plan for the week ahead.
I approach the market the way I approach medicine—systematically.
👩🏻💻Let’s check the market pulse and break it down.
I. THE MARKET VITALS (Best to Worst)👩🏻⚕️📊
♥️Market Pulse: 2/7
2/7 assets are up (29% bullish / 71% bearish).
Risk-off environment.
Money rotating into commodities, out of equities.
Here’s how the 7 major asset classes ranked this week:
Oil (USO): +2.28% 🔥; BEST PERFORMER, Near extreme-high RSI reading of 68. Popped 5.9% on Friday. Watch for profit-taking here.
Gold (GLD): +0.32% ✅; Forming an accumulation zone. Closed above its 5-day EMA.
Bitcoin ($BTCUSD): -2.98% ⚠️; Breakout failed. Trading below its 20-day SMA in its accumulation zone.
20 Year Bonds Treasury ETF (TLT): -0.22% ⚠️; Below its 200-day SMA.
The Dow Jones 30 (DIA): -0.99% ❌; Extreme-low RSI reading. Below its 200-day SMA. Reversal signal territory.
S&P 500 (SPY): -2.23% ❌; Extreme-low RSI reading. Below its 200-day SMA. Possible reversal signal territory.
The Nasdaq-100 (QQQ): -3.22% ❌; WORST performer. Below its 200-day SMA.
📈Secondary Assets to Watch
Here’s how key secondary assets performed over the last week:
Best:
Gold Miners (GDX): +7.08% 🔥; Setting up in accumulation above its 200-day SMA. Possible play this week.
Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ): +5.55% 🔥; Setting up in accumulation above its 200-day SMA. Possible play this week.
Russell 2000 Index (IWM): +0.36% ✅; Still above 200-day SMA, but may roll over if price doesn’t hold. Possible play this week. Outperformed the major 3 indices this past week.
Worst:
Semiconductors (SOXX): -2.72% ⚠️; Breakout failed. Possibly holding accumulation zone above 200-day SMA, but may roll over here.
Ark Innovation (ARKK): -6.54% ❌; Fell out of accumulation into a stage 4 decline. Below 200-day SMA. Fell 4.1% Friday!
Software (IGV): -7.35% ❌; Broke accumulation zone, possible stage 4 decline. Below 200-day SMA. Near extreme-low RSI reading of 30.
👩🏻💻Key Takeaway: Gold miners (GDX) and junior gold miners (GDXJ) are the bright spot. Looking at trade ideas in NUGT, GDXU, and JNUG.
👩🏻💻Tech-related ETFs like software (IGV), growth & innovation (ARKK), and semiconductors (SOXX) are struggling.
II. SECTOR ROTATION (11 SPDR S&P 500 Sectors)👩🏻⚕️🔄
Top 3 Performers:
Energy (XLE): #1 BEST sector. +6.17% 🔥, Extreme-high RSI reading. Above 200-day SMA.
Materials (XLB): +4.57% ✅; Accumulation zone above its 200-day SMA.
Utilities (XLU): +2.82% ✅; Accumulation zone above 200-day SMA.
Bottom 3 Performers:
Financials (XLF): -2.09% ❌; Below 200-day SMA. Extreme-low RSI reading.
Technology (XLK): -3.85% ❌; Below 200-day SMA.
Communication Services (XLC): -4.32% ❌; WORST sector. Below 200-day SMA. Extreme-low RSI reading.
Other Notable Sector Observations:
Consumer Staples (XLP): +1.17%; accumulation zone; possible trade idea.
Real Estate (XLRE): -0.77%; below 200-day SMA, extreme-low RSI reading.
Health Care (XLV): -1.02%; below 200-day SMA.
Industrials (XLI): -1.25%; stage 4 decline, but above 200-day SMA.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY):-1.72%; below 200-day SMA, extreme-low RSI reading.
👩🏻💻Sector Health: Only 4 out of 11 sectors are above their 200-day SMA (36% bullish).
👩🏻💻Money is rotating OUT of Technology (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC) and INTO defensive/commodities like Energy (XLE), Utilities (XLU), and Materials (XLB).
III. IMPORTANT SECTORS & ETFs 👩🏻⚕️🔍
Beyond the main sectors, here’s what stood out this week:
🚨 Oil & Gas Exploration (XOP):
Up over 6.6% on the week!
Extreme-high RSI reading 🚨: Take profits and leave some to run.
🎉Russell 2000 Index (IWM):
+0.36%
Still above 200-day SMA, but may roll over if price doesn’t hold.
Outperformed the major 3 indices this past week.
Possible play this week in URTY.
📉 Precious Metals Play This Week:
Gold (GLD), gold miners (GDX), and junior gold miners (GDXJ) are all setup here:
Gold Miners (GDX):
Up 6.67% on the week!
Accumulation zone.
Above 200-day SMA.
Possible play this week. (GDXU, NUGT)
Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ):
Up 5.55% on the week!
Accumulation zone.
Above 200-day SMA.
Possible play in JNUG.
Gold (GLD):
Up 0.32% on the week.
Popped 3.51% on Friday!
In accumulation zone. price closed above its 5-day EMA.
Above 200-day SMA.
Possible play in UGL.
⚠️ Growth & Tech ETFs:
Semiconductors (SOXX):
Breakout failed.
Possibly holding accumulation zone above, but may roll over here.
Still trading above its 200-day SMA.
Growth/Innovation (ARKK):
Fell out of accumulation zone into stage 4 decline.
Below 200-day SMA.
Fell 4.1% Friday!
Software (IGV):
Broke accumulation zone, possible stage 4 decline.
Near extreme-low RSI reading of 30.
Below 200-day SMA.
Regional Banks (KRE):
Accumulation zone, trading along 200-day SMA.
Possible breakout underway.
Possible play in DPST this week.
Let’s see if price can hold above its 200-day SMA.
👩🏻💻The ETF Story: Looking for plays in gold (GLD), gold miners (GDX), and junior gold miners (GDXJ). Regional Banks (KRE) look good here too.
👩🏻💻Money is rotating OUT of growth (ARKK), Technology (XLK), and Communication Services (XLC) INTO defensive/commodities like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), and Materials (XLB).
