Nurse State of The Market 3-29-26 Sunday Market Playbook
Welcome to the weekly official Nurse in The Market Sunday Market Playbook!!
Welcome back to the Nurse in the Market Sunday Playbook, your weekly market checkup and plan for the week ahead.
I approach the market the way I approach medicine—systematically.
👩🏻💻Let’s check the market pulse and break it down.
I. THE MARKET VITALS (Best to Worst)👩🏻⚕️📊
♥️Market Pulse: 2/7
2/7 assets are up (29% bullish / 71% bearish).
Risk-off environment.
Money rotating into commodities, out of equities.
Here’s how the 7 major asset classes ranked this week:
Oil (USO): +2.28% 🔥; BEST PERFORMER, Near extreme-high RSI reading of 68. Popped 5.9% on Friday. Watch for profit-taking here.
Gold (GLD): +0.32% ✅; Forming an accumulation zone. Closed above its 5-day EMA.
Bitcoin ($BTCUSD): -2.98% ⚠️; Breakout failed. Trading below its 20-day SMA in its accumulation zone.
20 Year Bonds Treasury ETF (TLT): -0.22% ⚠️; Below its 200-day SMA.
The Dow Jones 30 (DIA): -0.99% ❌; Extreme-low RSI reading. Below its 200-day SMA. Reversal signal territory.
S&P 500 (SPY): -2.23% ❌; Extreme-low RSI reading. Below its 200-day SMA. Possible reversal signal territory.
The Nasdaq-100 (QQQ): -3.22% ❌; WORST performer. Below its 200-day SMA.
📈Secondary Assets to Watch
Here’s how key secondary assets performed over the last week:
Best:
Gold Miners (GDX): +7.08% 🔥; Setting up in accumulation above its 200-day SMA. Possible play this week.
Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ): +5.55% 🔥; Setting up in accumulation above its 200-day SMA. Possible play this week.
Russell 2000 Index (IWM): +0.36% ✅; Still above 200-day SMA, but may roll over if price doesn’t hold. Possible play this week. Outperformed the major 3 indices this past week.
Worst:
Semiconductors (SOXX): -2.72% ⚠️; Breakout failed. Possibly holding accumulation zone above 200-day SMA, but may roll over here.
Ark Innovation (ARKK): -6.54% ❌; Fell out of accumulation into a stage 4 decline. Below 200-day SMA. Fell 4.1% Friday!
Software (IGV): -7.35% ❌; Broke accumulation zone, possible stage 4 decline. Below 200-day SMA. Near extreme-low RSI reading of 30.
👩🏻💻Key Takeaway: Gold miners (GDX) and junior gold miners (GDXJ) are the bright spot. Looking at trade ideas in NUGT, GDXU, and JNUG.
👩🏻💻Tech-related ETFs like software (IGV), growth & innovation (ARKK), and semiconductors (SOXX) are struggling.
II. SECTOR ROTATION (11 SPDR S&P 500 Sectors)👩🏻⚕️🔄
Top 3 Performers:
Energy (XLE): #1 BEST sector. +6.17% 🔥, Extreme-high RSI reading. Above 200-day SMA.
Materials (XLB): +4.57% ✅; Accumulation zone above its 200-day SMA.
Utilities (XLU): +2.82% ✅; Accumulation zone above 200-day SMA.
Bottom 3 Performers:
Financials (XLF): -2.09% ❌; Below 200-day SMA. Extreme-low RSI reading.
Technology (XLK): -3.85% ❌; Below 200-day SMA.
Communication Services (XLC): -4.32% ❌; WORST sector. Below 200-day SMA. Extreme-low RSI reading.
Other Notable Sector Observations:
Consumer Staples (XLP): +1.17%; accumulation zone; possible trade idea.
Real Estate (XLRE): -0.77%; below 200-day SMA, extreme-low RSI reading.
Health Care (XLV): -1.02%; below 200-day SMA.
Industrials (XLI): -1.25%; stage 4 decline, but above 200-day SMA.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY):-1.72%; below 200-day SMA, extreme-low RSI reading.
👩🏻💻Sector Health: Only 4 out of 11 sectors are above their 200-day SMA (36% bullish).
👩🏻💻Money is rotating OUT of Technology (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC) and INTO defensive/commodities like Energy (XLE), Utilities (XLU), and Materials (XLB).
III. IMPORTANT SECTORS & ETFs 👩🏻⚕️🔍
Beyond the main sectors, here’s what stood out this week:
🚨 Oil & Gas Exploration (XOP):
Up over 6.6% on the week!
Extreme-high RSI reading 🚨: Take profits and leave some to run.
🎉Russell 2000 Index (IWM):
+0.36%
Still above 200-day SMA, but may roll over if price doesn’t hold.
Outperformed the major 3 indices this past week.
Possible play this week in URTY.
📉 Precious Metals Play This Week:
Gold (GLD), gold miners (GDX), and junior gold miners (GDXJ) are all setup here:
Gold Miners (GDX):
Up 6.67% on the week!
Accumulation zone.
Above 200-day SMA.
Possible play this week. (GDXU, NUGT)
Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ):
Up 5.55% on the week!
Accumulation zone.
Above 200-day SMA.
Possible play in JNUG.
Gold (GLD):
Up 0.32% on the week.
Popped 3.51% on Friday!
In accumulation zone. price closed above its 5-day EMA.
Above 200-day SMA.
Possible play in UGL.
⚠️ Growth & Tech ETFs:
Semiconductors (SOXX):
Breakout failed.
Possibly holding accumulation zone above, but may roll over here.
Still trading above its 200-day SMA.
Growth/Innovation (ARKK):
Fell out of accumulation zone into stage 4 decline.
Below 200-day SMA.
Fell 4.1% Friday!
Software (IGV):
Broke accumulation zone, possible stage 4 decline.
Near extreme-low RSI reading of 30.
Below 200-day SMA.
Regional Banks (KRE):
Accumulation zone, trading along 200-day SMA.
Possible breakout underway.
Possible play in DPST this week.
Let’s see if price can hold above its 200-day SMA.
👩🏻💻The ETF Story: Looking for plays in gold (GLD), gold miners (GDX), and junior gold miners (GDXJ). Regional Banks (KRE) look good here too.
👩🏻💻Money is rotating OUT of growth (ARKK), Technology (XLK), and Communication Services (XLC) INTO defensive/commodities like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), and Materials (XLB).
IV: WHAT ASSETS & SECTORS I’M WATCHING 👩🏻⚕️🎯
Here’s what I’m focused on next week:
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