Nurse in the Market 7-26-26 Sunday Market Playbook
A top-down analysis of last week's market movement and a plan for the week ahead.
Welcome back to your weekly market checkup!
I hope you had an awesome week!
ICYMI, you can see the latest Top Pick of the Week here →
Let’s dig into last week’s market recap and the playbook for the week ahead →
The markets were volatile last week.
The major indexes didn’t do much this week.
Underneath them though? A lot changed.
The S&P 500 SPY 0.00%↑ slipped 0.59%, the Dow DIA 0.00%↑ lost 0.39%, and the Nasdaq QQQ 0.00%↑ fell 1.60%. Those numbers alone make the week look relatively uneventful.
However, that’s not where the interesting part of the market was.
Oil USO 0.00%↑ surged more than 10%. Energy XLE 0.00%↑ became the strongest S&P 500 sector.
Gold miners GDX 0.00%↑ jumped. Utilities, Industrials, and Materials moved higher while Software IGV 0.00%↑ , Consumer Discretionary XLY 0.00%↑ , and other growth-sensitive areas struggled.
In other words, money didn’t disappear.
→ It moved and that’s the part I care about.
When the indexes get all the attention, it’s easy to miss what’s happening underneath them.
→ Sector leadership can change before the headline numbers make that shift obvious.
So this week, I’m paying less attention to whether the SPY was up or down half a percent and more attention to where investors were actually putting their money because right now, the market looks “increasingly selective.”
Let’s get into the Playbook!!
The Dow Jones (DIA) was the top performing index of the Big 3, while the Nasdaq (QQQ) was the worst.
I. The Market Vitals (Best to Worst)
Here’s how the 7 major asset classes ranked this week:
Oil USO 0.00%↑
Bitcoin ($BTCUSD)
Gold GLD 0.00%↑
The Dow Jones 30 DIA 0.00%↑
The S&P 500 SPY 0.00%↑
The Nasdaq-100 QQQ 0.00%↑
20 Year Bonds Treasury ETF TLT 0.00%↑
♥️Market Pulse: 3/7
3/7 assets are up.
BTC, GLD, and USO are up.
QQQ, DIA, SPY, and TLT are down.
This week, I’m watching one question:
Does the leadership broaden—or become even more defensive?
The money underneath them tells you where investors are preparing to go.
II. Section Rotation (11 SPDR S&P 500 Sectors)
One of the clearest themes last week was sector rotation.
Leadership moved away from the usual growth engines.
Energy XLE 0.00%↑ led all 11 S&P 500 sectors over the past five days, followed by Utilities XLU 0.00%↑ , Industrials XLI 0.00%↑ , Materials XLB 0.00%↑ , and Real Estate XLRE 0.00%↑ .
Meanwhile, Technology XLK 0.00%↑ barely finished positive, while Communication Services XLC 0.00%↑ and Consumer Discretionary XLY 0.00%↑ brought up the rear.
💡 My Takeaway
This doesn’t look like a simple flight to safety.
If it were, I’d expect defensive sectors to dominate across the board. Instead, we’re seeing strength in Energy, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities—a mix of hard assets, infrastructure, cyclicals, and defense.
That tells me investors are becoming more selective about where they’re putting money.
And it confirms something else I’m seeing beneath the indexes:
→ Leadership is changing.
That’s what I’m watching next week.
Does this rotation continue—or does money move back into the growth sectors that have been leading this market?
III. Important Sectors & ETFs
The Lesson: Follow The Money 👑
This week’s leadership wasn’t what I’d expect from a full-throttle risk-on market.
Gold miners GDX 0.00%↑ and energy XLE 0.00%↑ led, while software IGV 0.00%↑ , speculative growth ARKK 0.00%↑ , small caps IWM 0.00%↑ , regional banks KRE 0.00%↑ , and retail XRT 0.00%↑ lagged.
Semiconductors SOXX 0.00%↑ managed to stay positive, which tells me investors aren’t abandoning technology—they’re becoming more selective about where they’re willing to take risk.
💡 My Takeaway
This looks less like investors running from the market and more like money rotating toward hard assets, cash-generating businesses, and areas with stronger near-term catalysts.
That doesn’t automatically make the move bullish or bearish.
It makes it selective and that distinction matters.
If small caps, regional banks, retail, and other economically sensitive areas begin participating, that would tell me the rotation is broadening and market participation may be getting healthier.
But if gold and energy continue leading while those groups weaken, I’d read that very differently. It could be a sign that investors are becoming more defensive beneath the surface.
So this week, I’m watching one question:
Does the leadership broaden—or become even more defensive?
Because sometimes the indexes tell you where the market went.
→ The money underneath them tells you where investors are preparing to go.
IV. What Assets & Sectors I’m Watching
Here’s what I’m focused on next week:
Oil (USO): This is at the top of my screen. USO surged 10.27% over the past five days, dramatically outperforming every other major asset I track.
After a move that large, I’m not interested in chasing it. I want to see whether oil can hold its gains, consolidate, or begin giving some of the move back.
Energy (XLE & XOP): Energy confirmed the move in crude. XLE gained 3.36%, making Energy the strongest S&P 500 sector, while XOP gained 2.27%. If crude holds and these groups continue participating, Energy remains one of the strongest areas on my radar.
Gold (GLD) & Gold Miners (GDX/GDXJ): GLD gained 0.95%, but the miners were considerably stronger. GDX rose 5.48% and GDXJ jumped 6.07%.
→ That relative strength has my attention. I’m watching whether gold itself begins confirming the enthusiasm we’re seeing in the miners.
The Nasdaq (QQQ): fell 1.60%, making it the weakest of the three major equity indexes I track. That lines up with weakness in Software and other growth-heavy areas.
→ I’m watching whether buyers return to growth or whether QQQ continues losing relative strength.
S&P 500 (SPY): declined 0.59% over the past five days. The headline index didn’t have a dramatic week, but the action underneath it certainly did.
For me, sector participation matters more here than the relatively small decline in SPY.
Dow Jones (DIA): fell just 0.39%, outperforming both SPY and QQQ.
That relative strength fits the broader rotation toward more traditional, industrial and value-oriented parts of the market.
Long-Term Treasuries Bonds (TLT): lost 1.50%. That’s important because stocks weren’t simply selling off while investors rushed into long-duration government bonds.
I’m watching yields and bonds closely because continued weakness in long-duration Treasuries could remain a headwind for rate-sensitive growth stocks.
Bitcoin (BTC): BTC was basically flat at +0.07%. With several other assets making meaningful moves, crypto gave us very little directional information this week. I’m watching for the next decisive move rather than trying to manufacture a signal that isn’t there.
What I’m Watching Most →
This week gave me a much clearer message than the headline indexes alone would suggest.
Oil surged. Energy led. Gold miners rallied. Industrials and Materials participated. Meanwhile, QQQ weakened, Software sold off, Consumer Discretionary struggled, and long-duration Treasuries declined.
That isn’t a market where everything is moving together.
→ It’s a market making choices.
So, again, I’m heading into next week with one question:
Does money continue moving toward energy, hard assets, and the physical economy—or does growth reclaim leadership?
I’m not trying to predict the answer. I’m following the money.
V. Individual Stock Highlights & Winners From Last Week
Profit-Taking Opportunities:
USO, $BRENT
XOP
CVX, XOM
MMM, UNP, LMT, GD, AAPL
GUSH
Congratulations to everyone in these trades!
VI. Nurse Jess’s Trade Ideas
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