Nurse in the Market 8-2-26 Sunday Market Playbook
A top-down analysis of last week's market movement and a plan for the week ahead.
Welcome back to your weekly market checkup!
I hope you had a great week!
ICYMI, you can see the latest Top Pick of the Week here →
A quick highlight from last week →
Amazon.com, Inc. AMZN 0.00%↑ rallied into one of my key target zones, reaching its previous highs while pushing the RSI back toward a near extreme-high reading. For long-term investors, the story remains intact, but for traders, this is the type of setup where I begin thinking about protecting profits instead of chasing the move. Congratulations to those of you in the AMZN / AMZU trade!
A quick update from last week →
Before we get into this week’s market action, I wanted to share a milestone.
Last week, Nurse in the Market officially surpassed 200 subscribers!!
Thank you for reading, sharing, asking thoughtful questions, and helping grow this community. Every article, podcast, and Sunday Market Playbook is created with one goal in mind: helping busy professionals become more confident investors.
Here’s to the next 200. We're just getting started.
Let’s dig into last week’s market recap and the playbook for the week ahead →
The markets were fun as always last week!
The major indexes finished the week in positive territory, but the gains weren’t evenly distributed.
The S&P 500 SPY 0.00%↑ and Dow Jones DIA 0.00%↑ led the way, while the Nasdaq QQQ 0.00%↑ lagged behind.
That tells me investors were willing to own stocks, but they weren’t aggressively chasing higher-growth names.
Outside of equities, the picture was mixed.
Oil USO 0.00%↑ gave back 5.50% after last week’s surge, long-term Treasuries TLT 0.00%↑ fell another 1.20%, Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) declined 2.41%, and Gold GLD 0.00%↑ finished essentially flat.
My take: This wasn’t a risk-on or risk-off week.
→ It was a selective participation week.
Investors continued buying stocks, but they weren’t buying everything. Leadership wasn’t as aggressive, and several alternative assets failed to confirm a broad move higher.
That’s why, heading into next week, I’m less focused on whether the indexes continue climbing and more interested in who leads the next leg of the market because sustainable rallies aren’t defined by higher prices alone.
→ They’re defined by expanding leadership.
Let’s get into the Playbook!!
The S&P 500 (SPY) was the top performing index of the Big 3, while the Nasdaq (QQQ) was the worst.
Biggest Takeaway: The major indexes moved higher, but leadership remained selective rather than broad-based.
I. The Market Vitals (Best to Worst)
Here’s how the 7 major asset classes ranked this week:
Oil USO 0.00%↑
The Dow Jones 30 DIA 0.00%↑
The S&P 500 SPY 0.00%↑
The Nasdaq-100 QQQ 0.00%↑
Gold GLD 0.00%↑
Bitcoin ($BTCUSD)
20 Year Bonds Treasury ETF TLT 0.00%↑
♥️Market Pulse: 3/7
3/7 assets are up.
SPY, QQQ, and DIA are up.
USO, BTC, GLD, and TLT are down.
This was a “selective participation” week.
II. Section Rotation (11 SPDR S&P 500 Sectors)
When it come to the 11 sectors of the SPY, don’t ask:
“Which sectors were green"?
Ask:
“What is the market rewarding?”
→ This week’s sector performance tells a very different story than last week.
Consumer Discretionary XLY 0.00%↑ led all 11 S&P 500 sectors with a gain of 6.11%, followed by Communication Services XLC 0.00%↑ and Financials XLF 0.00%↑ .
Meanwhile, Utilities XLU 0.00%↑ , Real Estate, Materials XLB 0.00%↑ , and Industrials XLI 0.00%↑ finished near the bottom of the leaderboard.
→ That’s a meaningful shift.
Last week, investors favored Energy XLE 0.00%↑ , Utilities, and other hard-asset sectors.
This week, money rotated back toward consumer-focused and economically sensitive areas while several defensive sectors lost momentum.
Biggest Takeaway: Consumer Discretionary (XLY) reclaimed leadership while Utilities (XLU) fell to the bottom, signaling a shift back toward cyclical risk.
III. Important Secondary Assets & Sectors
The specialized ETFs reinforced the message we saw in the broader sector data.
Software (IGV) led the group with a 7.50% gain, followed by Retail (XRT) and Oil & Gas Exploration (XOP).
On the other end of the spectrum, Brent Crude Oil ($BRENT), Homebuilders (XHB), and Semiconductors (SOXX) finished among the week’s weakest performers.
That tells me this wasn’t a broad-based rally across every industry.
→ It was a targeted rotation.
Investors favored software, retail, and selected cyclical businesses while stepping away from areas that had previously led, including crude oil, gold miners, and semiconductors.
One relationship stood out to me.
Brent Crude Oil fell nearly 9%, yet XOP still gained almost 2%.
→ That’s an important divergence.
It suggests investors weren’t abandoning energy companies altogether. Instead, they continued rewarding well-positioned exploration and production businesses even as oil prices pulled back.
The same selective behavior showed up inside Technology XLK 0.00%↑ .
Software surged and Semiconductors declined.
→ That’s a reminder that leadership can change within a sector, not just between sectors.
My Take: The market rewarded selective growth, not speculative buying.
Software IGV 0.00%↑ and retail XRT 0.00%↑ regained leadership, while Energy XLE 0.00%↑ remained resilient despite lower oil prices.
At the same time, defensive themes such as gold miners GDX 0.00%↑ failed to attract meaningful capital.
The biggest lesson this week wasn’t simply that stocks moved higher.
→ It was that investors became much more selective about where they wanted exposure.
→ That’s exactly the type of environment where individual stock selection matters more than simply buying the entire market.
Biggest Takeaway: Leadership returned to growth, but not all growth. Software (IGV) led, semiconductors (SOXX) lagged, and stock selection mattered more than sector selection.
IV. What Assets & Sectors I’m Watching
Here’s what’s at the top of my screen heading into next week.
Russell 2000 (IWM) →
Small caps barely finished positive last week, even as the major indexes pushed higher.
That’s worth watching.
→ If investors start embracing risk again, IWM should begin outperforming.
→ If it continues lagging while SPY grinds higher, it tells me this rally is still being carried by a relatively narrow group of stocks.
→ I’m watching for relative strength to return.
Long-Term Treasury Bonds (TLT) →
TLT continues to struggle.
Bond prices fell another 1.20% last week, pushing yields higher and keeping pressure on rate-sensitive areas of the market.
Growth stocks can still rally while yields rise, but it becomes a much harder environment.
→ If TLT starts finding support, it could become a tailwind for technology and other long-duration assets.
Oil (USO) →
Oil finally cooled off after last week’s explosive rally.
USO pulled back 5.50%, but one down week doesn’t change the bigger trend.
I’m watching to see whether buyers step back in around support. If they do, Energy could reclaim leadership very quickly.
Software (IGV) →
This is probably my favorite chart heading into next week.
IGV finished as the strongest specialized ETF I track, gaining 7.50% over the past five days.
→ Software leading while semiconductors lag is an interesting shift.
If buyers continue rotating back into high-quality software names, this could become one of the cleaner momentum trades on my watchlist.
Retail (XRT) →
Consumer Discretionary XLY 0.00%↑ was the strongest S&P 500 sector last week.
Retail confirmed that move.
XRT gained more than 3%, suggesting investors are becoming more comfortable owning consumer-facing businesses again.
I’m watching for follow-through.
Energy Producers (XOP / XLE) →
Oil pulled back and energy stocks didn’t.
XOP still finished the week higher despite crude giving back ground.
That’s exactly the kind of relative strength I like seeing.
If Oil ($BRENT) stabilizes, XOP could continue leading.
Semiconductors (SOXX) →
This one is getting interesting.
SOXX lost more than 4% last week after being one of this year’s strongest groups.
I’m not looking to chase weakness.
But if price holds support and buyers step back in, semiconductors could offer another opportunity.
I’m watching the chart; not trying to predict it.
ARK Innovation (ARKK) →
ARKK remains one of the highest-beta ETFs in the market.
It struggled again last week, but that’s exactly why I’m paying attention.
→ The best trades often come from groups nobody wants to touch—once buyers start returning.
→ Not yet, but it’s getting close enough to stay on my radar.
What I’m Watching Most →
The macro picture hasn’t changed.
Money is starting to rotate back toward selective growth, but the leadership still isn’t broad enough for me to call this a full risk-on market.
Software is improving and retail is improving.
Small caps still need to prove themselves.
Bonds remain weak.
Oil is trying to decide whether last week’s pullback was simply profit-taking—or the start of something bigger.
That’s where my attention will be.
I’m not interested in predicting next week’s winners.
→I’m interested in seeing where money actually shows up because that’s usually where the next trade begins.
V. Individual Stock Highlights & Winners From Last Week
Profit-Taking Opportunities:
XLF
JPM, BAC, AMGN, SOLV, MMM, LMT, GD, NUE
AMZN, MSFT, SNOW, VZ
FAS, AMZU
Congratulations to everyone in these trades!
VI. Nurse Jess’s Weekend Market Notes
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