Nurse State of The Market 3-15-26 Sunday Market Playbook
Welcome to the first official Nurse in the Market Sunday Market Playbook!!
This week’s market gave us some wild signals.
Oil (USO) ripped over 10%, Bitcoin (BTC) held its breakout momentum, and the major indices (QQQ, SPY, IWM, DIA) showed weakness across the board.
Energy (XLE) hit an extreme-high RSI reading (time to take profits), while both the Dow Jones (DIA) and Regional Banks (KRE) hit extreme-low RSI readings (potential reversal signals).
The key question: Is this rotation sustainable, or are we seeing the early stages of a broader pullback?
Let’s break down what happened.
I. THE MARKET VITALS (Best to Worst)👩🏻⚕️📊
♥️Market Pulse: 4/7 Mixed (Energy Leading, Major Indices Weakening)
Here’s how the 7 major asset classes ranked this week:
Oil (USO): BEST PERFORMER, popped over 10% and Crude Oil ($BRENT) surged over 11%. Both tagged extreme-high RSI readings! 🚨This is a profit-taking zone. If you caught this rally, lock in gains and leave some to run!!
Bitcoin ($BTCUSD): Up over 5% and is still holding its breakout and trading above 20-day SMA. ✅ Strong momentum continuing. Still below 200-day SMA, so not completely out of the woods yet, but crypto bulls have momentum.
Gold (GLD): Rolling over into stage 4 decline. Price closed below 20-day SMA twice this week. ⚠️ This presents an opportunity in precious metals on the pullback, especially $copper.
The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): Best of the major 3 indices, but could be rolling over here. Still holding support zone, but may be breaking its accumulation and support zone. Tech bulls need to see this hold.
S&P 500 (SPY): Rolled over. Closed above 200-day SMA. Key support is holding for now, but momentum is shifting.
The Dow Jones 30 (DIA): Worst of the major indices and is heading towards its 200-day SMA with an extreme-low RSI reading of 28.🚨 This is a potential reversal signal. Watch closely for a bounce or breakdown.
20 Year Bonds Treasury ETF (TLT): WORST PERFORMER. Entered a decline confirmed, closed below 200-day SMA. Bearish signal. Bonds breaking down.
📈Secondary Assets to Watch:
The Russell 2000 Index (IWM): Rolling over. Only outperformed the Dow Jones (DIA) this week. Small caps weak.
👩🏻💻What This Means:
The Market Pulse shows Energy (USO, $BRENT, XLE, XOP) leading while the major indices weaken.
Oil (USO) hit an extreme-high RSI reading (take profits), Bitcoin (BTC) is holding its breakout momentum, but the major indices (SPY, QQQ, IWM, DIA) all fell this week.
The Dow Jones (DIA) hit extreme-low RSI reading, which could be a potential reversal signal!
Gold (GLD) rolling over presents opportunities in precious metals. Bonds (TLT) in stage 4 decline suggest investors rotating OUT of defensive plays.
This is a mixed environment: pockets of strength (oil, crypto), but underlying weakness in the broader market (major indices, bonds).
II. SECTOR ROTATION (11 SPDR S&P 500 Sectors)👩🏻⚕️🔄
Top 3 Performers:
Energy (XLE): #1 best performer, extreme-high RSI of 70. 🚨
Utilities (XLU)
Technology (XLK): Possibly rolling over, closed just below 200-day SMA.
Bottom 3 Performers:
Industrials (XLI)
Consumer Discretionary (XLY): trading below 200-day SMA.
Financials (XLF): Worst performer, trading below 200-day SMA.
Key Sector Observations:
🚨 Extreme RSI readings (>70) Profit-Taking Zone:
Energy (XLE/XOP): RSI of 70. Energy led the week, but it’s stretched. Time to lock in profits and let the rest run.
possible profit taking opportunities: XLE, XOP, UCO, GUSH, CVX, OXY, COP
⚠️ Stage 4 Declines Above 200-day SMA:
Real Estate (XLRE)
Industrials (XLI)
Health Care (XLV)
These sectors are declining, but still above their 200-day SMAs. Watch for breakdown or reversal.
⚠️ Stage 4 Decline with Reversal Signal:
Consumer Staples (XLP): Closed with a doji bar. Potential bottom forming and reversal could be underway.
💡 Watch for Entry:
Materials (XLB): Not set up yet, but watching for an accumulation zone to enter a double leveraged materials trade in UYM.
❌ Breakout Failure:
Communications Services (XLC): Breakout failed and now struggling to hold its accumulation zone. Disappointing reversal.
🚨 CRITICAL! Below 200-day SMA (Weakest Sectors):
Consumer Discretionary (XLY): Rolled over, trading BELOW its 200-day SMA.
Financials (XLF): Also rolled over, trading BELOW its 200-day SMA.
These two sectors stand out as the weakest. Both in declines at extreme-low RSI readings and below their 200-day SMA.
⚠️ Tech Possibly Rolling Over:
Technology (XLK): Closed just below its 200-day SMA on Friday, but still holding its zone of support. Watch closely for confirmation.
👩🏻💻The Sector Story:
Energy (XLE) led this week, but banged an extreme-high RSI reading so its time to take profits.
Utilities (XLU) holding strong, but underneath, there’s real weakness: Financials (XLF) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) are both below their 200-day SMAs, which is a bearish signal, but a sign of potential future opportunities.
Technology (XLK) is on the edge, possibly rolling over. Health Care (XLV), Industrials (XLI), and Real Estate (XLRE) all in declines above support. Communication Services (XLC) breakout failed.
The one bright spot? Consumer Staples (XLP) put in a doji bar, which means a potential reversal and bottom is forming.
