Nurse State of The Market 5-17-26 Sunday Market Playbook

A top-down analysis and plan for the week ahead.

The Write Trader and Jess, The Creator

May 18, 2026

Welcome back to your weekly market checkup!

I hope you had a great week!

In case you missed it, you can see last week’s top play of the week here →

A quick highlight from last week →

Snowflake Inc. SNOW 0.00%↑ was given out as a top trade pick on 5/7/26. Price popped over 4.4% on Friday and broke out of its zone of accumulation. Hold your position here and wait for price to hit its profit targets or come back in the box.

In case you missed it, you can see the SNOW trade here →

Let’s dig into last week’s market recap and the playbook for the week ahead →

The markets made history last week!

The Nasdaq (QQQ) and the S&P 500 (SPY) hit new record highs again! The SPY has cooled off a bit; but the QQQ is still trading at an extreme-high RSI reading here.

The oil trade is back on! Oil (USO) broke out and popped over 10% last week. Price is trading above its 5-day EMA, which presents us with potential trade ideas this week.

The Dow Jones (DIA) has still been moving sideways forming a consolidation zone here above its 20-day SMA.

The breakout in Gold (GLD) lost its momentum and price closed below its 20-day SMA with a doji bar signaling a possible bottom is in. I’m watching to see if price holds or rolls over here.

Bitcoin (BTC) just tagged its 200-day SMA, but has closed below its 20-day SMA indicating a potential decline is underway.

Bonds (TLT) broke its accumulation zone and is now trading at a near extreme-low RSI reading below its 200-day SMA.

The S&P 500 (SPY) was the top performing index of the Big 3, while the Nasdaq (QQQ)was the worst.

I. The Market Vitals (Best to Worst)

Here’s how the 7 major asset classes ranked this week:

The Nasdaq-100 QQQ 0.00%↑
The S&P 500 SPY 0.00%↑
Oil USO 0.00%↑
The Dow Jones 30 DIA 0.00%↑
Gold GLD 0.00%↑
Bitcoin ($BTCUSD)
20 Year Bonds Treasury ETF TLT 0.00%↑

♥️Market Pulse: 2/7

2/7 assets are up.
USO and the SPY are up.
QQQ, DIA, BTC, GLD, and TLT are down.

II. Section Rotation (11 SPDR S&P 500 Sectors)

Above is the 5-day performance across all 11 sectors.

Energy XLE 0.00%↑ was the top performing sector of the S&P 500 SPY 0.00%↑ , while Consumer Discretionary XLY 0.00%↑ was the worst.

The top three performing sectors were Energy (XLE), Health Care (XLV), and Consumer Staples (XLP).

The worst three performing sectors were Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Real Estate (XLRE), and Materials (XLB).

Technology XLK 0.00%↑ is still climbing higher and trading at an extreme-high RSI reading; however, it closed with a doji bar on Friday indicating a top could be in here.

Energy XLE 0.00%↑ has entered a confirmed breakout signaling the oil trade is back on.

The breakout in Health Care XLV 0.00%↑ failed and is trading back below its 20-day SMA, but it also closed below its 200-day SMA, which is typically bearish. I’m watching to see if price holds here for possible trade setups this week.

Health Care (XLV), Utilities (XLU) Consumer Discretionary (XLY), and Financials (XLF) are trading back below their 200-day SMA, which is typically bearish.

III. Important Sectors & ETFs

Beyond the main sectors, here’s what stood out this week:

SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF XOP 0.00%↑ has closed above its 20-day SMA entering a breakout following suit with Energy XLE 0.00%↑ . This presents a nice trade setup this week. I’m looking at leveraged oil trades in GUSH and OILU.

The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF IGV 0.00%↑ continued to climb higher and carried many software stocks with it like SNOW, FRSH, MSFT, and ADBE which all broke out.

iShares Semiconductors ETF SOXX 0.00%↑ finally started to cool off and is no longer trading at an extreme-high RSI reading here. Price also put in a doji bar signaling a potential top is in.

The Russell 2000 Index IWM 0.00%↑ has entered a possible decline here. Price closed below its 20-day SMA on Friday. Lets see if price comes back above its 20-day SMA or continues to fall lower.

After Ark Innovation ETF ARKK 0.00%↑ broke through its 200-day SMA, it quickly closed back below it and closed below its 20-day SMA and is entering a possible decline here.

Regional Banks KRE 0.00%↑ have entered a decline right above its 200-day SMA.

The markets and sectors have finally started to cool off here. Oil (USO) and the XOP are demonstrating strength along with software stocks (IGV) which rose higher last week.

IV. What Assets & Sectors I’m Watching

Here’s what I’m focused on next week:

Oil (USO): Will price keep falling here or will price hold here?
- XLE and XOP both put in doji bars on Friday signaling a bottom may be in here.
Dow Jones (DIA): Will price keep climbing and reach an extreme-high RSI reading or will it roll over here?
The S&P 500 & The Nasdaq (SPY & QQQ): The SPY has cooled off and is no longer trading at an extreme-high RSI reading here; however, the QQQ is. Use caution and don’t FOMO into any positions.
- Lock in profits and leave some to run!
- Let your winners run!!!

Gold (GLD): Price put in a doji. I’m watching to see if a bottom is in and price holds here and starts basing or falls lower.
Health Care (XLV): I’m looking at health care for a potential set up here if price breaks out. I like CURE for 3x leverage.

V. Individual Stock Highlights & Winners From Last Week

Extreme-High RSI Readings & Profit-Taking Opportunities:

SPY, QQQ
XLK, SOXX
GOOGL, SNDK, AMD, MU, AMZN, AAPL, NVDA TSLA
CSCO, NVO, NUE
WGMI, CLSK, POET
Leveraged trades: UPRO, TQQQ, SOXL, AAPU, AMDL, AMZU, GGLL, NVDL TSLL

Congratulations to everyone in these trades!

VI. Nurse Jess’s Trade Ideas

Here are the setups I’m watching heading into next week:

1. Main Trade Ideas This Week

USO, XLE
OXY, CVX, COP
VZ, NKE, LMT, MCD, IBM, HSY
CRM, ADBE, MSFT
META, UBER, RDDT, NFLX, LYFT, SOFI, CMG

2. Buy & Hold Undervalued Opportunities

These are trading below fair value or set up for long-term entries:

SNOW, CRM, ADBE, MSFT
NKE, VZ, HSY, CPB, CLX
LMT, IBM
RACE, LVMUY, RDDT, UBER
MDT, CRSP, SOFI

3. Spec Trade Ideas

ENVX, VKTX, FUBO, RIVN, HIMS, TREE

4. Leveraged Trade Ideas

OILU, GUSH, ERX
CRMG, ADBG, MSFU
FBL, RDTL, UBRL, NFXL, LMTL, SOFX

5. My Watchlist

TLT, GLD
IWM, GDX, IBB, ARKK
XLU, XLB, XLF, XLV, XLRE
KRE, XHB
AIR, PFE, NKE, GD, CE, SEB, ALB, BX
PINS, CRSP, AMZN, SNAP, LYFT
ENVX, HIMS, VKTX, RIVN, TREE
CURE, RVNL

VII. Trade Breakdowns

Before we get into this week’s trade breakdowns, you’ll notice something:

MCD and LMT are back.

Same names. Same watchlist and that’s intentional.

One mistake I see traders make all the time is abandoning good stocks too early.

A setup doesn’t immediately break out, so they assume the trade is dead.

Then they jump to a new ticker.

Then another and then another.

By Friday, they’re staring at ten charts and wondering what the hell happened.

Following the same stocks matters because familiarity creates pattern recognition.

You start learning how a stock behaves.
How it reacts around key levels.
Where buyers usually step in.
How it moves when momentum starts building.

And sometimes a stock taking longer isn’t a bad thing.

Sometimes it means the setup is still building.

If the structure and thesis are still intact, more time can actually work in your favor. It gives you more time to build intentionally instead of chasing price.

MCD and LMT still fit the process.

So they’re staying on the field this week.

1. Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT)

Lockheed Martin Corp. LMT 0.00%↑ is setting up in an accumulation zone right below its 200-day SMA.

Price hit an extreme-low RSI reading indicating a bottom may be in here.

Price closed above its 5-day EMA and the MACD histogram crossed over to the bullish side, which demonstrates confluence of the indicators here.

This is a wonderful buy and hold opportunity here!

Profit targets:

An extreme-high RSI reading
First target zone: $595
Previous high target zone: $675

LMT is the world's largest defense contractor and has dominated the Western market for high-end fighter aircraft since it won the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program in 2001.

Aeronautics is LMT’s largest segment, which derives upward of two-thirds of its revenue from the F-35.

According to Morningstar, LMT has a fair value of $640 and is currently trading undervalued.

LMT is part of the Industrials sector (XLI) of the S&P 500 (SPY) and the Defense sub-sector.
Link to LMT chart

2. McDonalds Corp. (MCD)

McDonalds Corp. MCD 0.00%↑ had entered a decline, hit an extreme-low RSI reading, and is trading below its 200-day SMA.

Price has started to move sideways into a zone of accumulation. I’m watching for price to close above its 5-day EMA for entry confirmation.

The MACD histogram has also been ticking upwards indicating that the momentum to the upside is in favor.

The company is also trading undervalued here, which doesn’t happen a lot for this trophy stock!!

This is another beautiful buy and hold opportunity here!!

Profit targets:

An extreme-high RSI reading
200-day SMA target
Previous high target zone: $335

MCD is the world’s largest restaurant brand, with nearly $139 billion in systemwide sales across more than 45,000 restaurants and over 100 markets.

The quick-service chain built its early reputation on speed, consistency, and affordable hamburgers, and today its global menu spans burgers, chicken, breakfast, and beverages that have helped popularize American fast-food cuisine worldwide.

According to Morningstar, MCD has a fair value of $300 and is currently trading undervalued.

MCD is part of the Consumer Discretionary sector (XLY) of the S&P 500 (SPY) and the Restaurants & Bars sub-sector.
Link to MCD chart