Guess who’s back on my trading desk?
Hershey HSY 0.00%↑ .
I featured HSY in April as a long-term value and dividend opportunity, when price was trading just below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA).
Six months later, the chart looks different.
HSY is trading further below its 200-day SMA, but short-term momentum is improving and that creates an interesting question:
Could HSY offer both a swing trade and a long-term investment opportunity?
I think it’s worth watching. Here’s why.
Here’s the setup →
NIM Top Pick of the Week 👑
Ticker: HSY 0.00%↑
Company: Hershey Foods Corp.
Sector: Consumer Staples XLP 0.00%↑
Industry: Food Products
Valuation: Morningstar currently rates HSY five stars with a $230 fair-value estimate and a wide economic moat.
Dividend: Yes. HSY pays a quarterly dividend with a 3.42% yield.
Potential swing-trade target: 200-day SMA, around $188.
First, let’s start where every trade should start—with the Big Picture.
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I. The Business: Better Earnings, One Big Question
HSY’s second-quarter results showed progress:
Revenue: $2.79 billion, up 6.6%.
Adjusted earnings per share: $1.90, up 57%.
Organic pricing: Up approximately 12%.
Sales volume/mix: Down approximately 8%.
That last comparison matters.
HSY raised prices, but consumers bought fewer products.
The company’s brands still have pricing power. The question is how long it can lean on higher prices without further hurting demand.
HSY also raised its full-year outlook, and its next earnings report is scheduled for October 29.
I’ll be watching for signs that margins and consumer demand are improving.
Is HSY undervalued?
At Tuesday’s closing price of $169.58, HSY was trading approximately 26% below Morningstar’s $230 fair-value estimate.
Morningstar also assigned HSY a 5-star rating, with a low uncertainty assessment.
The stock offers an annualized dividend yield of approximately 3.4% at that price.
That’s an interesting combination for a long-term investor.
However, Morningstar’s estimate is an opinion, not a guaranteed destination. Several Wall Street analysts have recently lowered their price targets.
The valuation looks attractive. The business still has something to prove.
HSY chart annotation →
II. The Chart: Momentum is Improving
Here’s what stood out on Tuesday:
HSY has reclaimed its 5-day EMA, 10-day EMA, and 20-day SMA.
The RSI reading near 55 suggests improving momentum, and the positive MACD histogram supports that recovery, but there’s a caution flag.
Money Flow Index is around 75.
Buying pressure is already elevated, so I’m not interested in chasing a sharp move higher.
The initial close above the 5-day EMA has occurred. Now I’m watching whether price can hold its recovery or offer a more attractive entry after a pullback.
And the level I’m watching overhead?
The 200-day SMA near $188.
In other words:
→ this is an amazing buy & hold opportunity to pick up shares of HSY, an undervalued trophy stock to hold for the long-term, if not forever.
→ we can also position trade HSY back to true value and beyond and make massive gains.
→ we can take a simple swing trade to the 200-day SMA.
→ if you’re an experienced, astute trader, you can write option contracts on HSY and do what you do and make exponential gains.
III. Two Potential Plays. Two Different Plans.
1. The Swing Trade
With HSY around $169.58 and its 200-day SMA near $187.66, there’s approximately 10.7% potential upside to that moving average.
That’s my technical target, not a prediction.
I’d prefer a controlled pullback followed by renewed strength above the 5-day EMA, with a clear level that would invalidate the setup.
And there’s one important complication:
Hershey reports earnings October 29.
An earnings gap can move price sharply past a stop-loss level. I need to decide whether the swing trade is worth holding through that event before entering.
2. The Buy & Hold Play
For a longer-term position, I’m looking beyond the chart.
Morningstar’s $230 fair-value estimate implies approximately 35.6% potential upside from Tuesday’s close, excluding dividends.
But realizing that value depends on HSY’s business performance, particularly margins, cocoa costs, consumer demand, and earnings growth.
The dividend adds income potential while an investor waits, but it doesn’t eliminate the risk.
And here’s the trap I refuse to fall into:
Entering a stock for a swing trade, watching the trade fail, and suddenly calling it a long-term investment. 😂
NOPE.
Decide which trade you’re taking before you buy.
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IV: Why I’m Revisiting HSY
Here’s something I want newer investors to understand.
→ You don’t need a new ticker every week.
I prefer keeping a focused watchlist of roughly 10–20 companies I can follow closely.
That doesn’t mean owning all of them. It means learning their businesses, earnings cycles, valuations, and chart behavior.
Hershey is a good example.
I liked its long-term potential in April. Now I’m evaluating a different technical opportunity while keeping the original investment thesis in view.
A familiar company can offer a fresh setup.
You just have to recognize when the opportunity changes.
The Bottom Line
Hershey HSY 0.00%↑ is my Top Pick this week because its short-term technical picture is improving while its longer-term valuation deserves attention.
For the swing trade, I’m watching for an entry with manageable risk and a potential move toward the 200-day SMA near $188.
For the long-term investment, I’m watching whether earnings and consumer demand can support Morningstar’s $230 fair-value estimate.
With earnings approaching, patience matters more than chasing.
Same stock. New opportunity. Different game plans.
Following a systematic approach, reading market structure, and staying disciplined compounds over time.
Let me know what you’re watching and thank you so much for reading! 🙌
-Nurse Jess 🤝
Know the Big Picture. Focus on the Edge. 👑
Recent Articles
📌 Bookmark this post. Track these setups through the week and see how they play out. This is how you develop an edge—by studying real-time trade ideas and learning what works.
Financial Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. All trades carry risk. Biotech stocks are highly volatile and speculative. Always do your own due diligence and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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I featured HSY back in April, and here we are looking at it again. 😂🍫
That's the beauty of keeping a focused watchlist. You get to know your companies, recognize when the setup changes, and make a NEW plan.
Are you watching Hershey for a swing trade toward its 200-day SMA, or would you rather collect dividends and hold for the long term? 👀👑
Hey Jess ... I hope you're doing well. Great analysis (as usual). I'll put HSY on my list of "buys" and thought I'd let you know a couple I'm looking at on my potential buy list. For long term holds FRT, SON and for growth META, SPCX and for high yield ETF I'm looking at FBY if I buy the META shares. Thanks for always sharing your insightful market knowledge!