Nurse in the Market 8-9-26 Sunday Market Playbook
A top-down analysis of last week's market movement and a plan for the week ahead.
🤝 NOTE: This week’s market playbook is the last free one for everyone. This is a free release so you can see exactly what you get in Nurse in The Market before you decide to become a paid subscriber. 😃
Welcome back to your weekly market checkup!
I hope you had an amazing week!
ICYMI, you can see the latest Top Pick of the Week here →
Top Pick of the Week: One Layer Deeper
One of my favorite parts about investing has nothing to do with buying stocks.
A quick highlight from last week →
It’s time to lock in some profits in Snap Inc. SNAP 0.00%↑ signaled by price banging an extreme-high RSI reading here!! You could trim some shares to lock in gains and leave the rest of the position to run! Congratulations to you in the SNAP trade!!
Another quick highlight from last week →
Airbnb Inc. ABNB 0.00%↑ popped over 17% on Friday and hit an extreme-high RSI reading! ABNB was one of our Top Picks of the Week back in June. If this was a swing trade for you, you could close the trade. If this is a position trade, you could lock in some profits and leave the rest to run! ABNB is trading fairly valued here. Congratulations to you in the ABNB trade!!
Let’s dig into last week’s market recap and the playbook for the week ahead →
The markets were fun last week!
This week’s message is less about investors choosing between risk and safety and more about capital spreading across several different themes.
Growth ARKK 0.00%↑ came back aggressively and the broader indexes participated.
Bonds TLT 0.00%↑ improved and gold GLD 0.00%↑ exploded higher.
Bitcoin joined the rally, although with considerably less strength than the Nasdaq QQQ 0.00%↑ and oil (USO) was left behind.
→ The strongest signal for me is QQQ reclaiming leadership over SPY and DIA.
After watching growth struggle for relative strength, seeing QQQ outperform both major indexes is constructive; however, GLD leading everything keeps me from calling this a straightforward “risk-on” week.
There are still competing messages beneath the surface and that’s exactly why the sectors and other major secondary assets matter this week.
If Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Software, Semiconductors, and other growth-sensitive groups confirm the QQQ’s strength, we’ll have stronger evidence that investors are moving back toward growth.
If Gold miners GDX 0.00%↑ and other defensive or hard-asset groups dominate instead?
Then the story gets a hell of a lot more interesting.
The Nasdaq (QQQ) was the top performing index of the Big 3, while the Dow Jones (DIA) was the worst.
Biggest Takeaway: Growth (ARKK) came roaring back, but Gold (GLD) led everything, telling me investors were willing to take risk without completely abandoning protection. Oil (USO) was the clear loser, making this a broad rally with one major exception.
I. The Market Vitals (Best to Worst)
Here’s how the 7 major asset classes ranked this week:
The S&P 500 SPY 0.00%↑
Gold GLD 0.00%↑
The Dow Jones 30 DIA 0.00%↑
The Nasdaq-100 QQQ 0.00%↑
Bitcoin ($BTCUSD)
20 Year Bonds Treasury ETF TLT 0.00%↑
Oil USO 0.00%↑
♥️Market Pulse: 6/7
6/7 assets are up.
GLD, BTC, TLT, SPY, QQQ, and DIA are up.
USO is down.
II. Section Rotation (11 SPDR S&P 500 Sectors)
This week’s sector performance gives us important confirmation of what we saw in the major indexes.
Last week, Consumer Discretionary led while Technology lagged.
This week, Technology XLK 0.00%↑ went from laggard to leader, while Consumer Discretionary XLY 0.00%↑ remained strong in third place.
At the other end, Energy XLE 0.00%↑ , confirming the weakness we saw in oil, with USO down 8.66%. Utilities declined another 1.67%, while Consumer Staples XLP 0.00%↑ barely moved.
→ And that helps put Gold’s huge week into perspective.
Despite GLD gaining 7.25%, the sector data doesn’t look like a broad flight to safety.
→ Technology (XLK) led, Consumer Discretionary (XLY) stayed strong, Industrials (XLI) participated, and Utilities (XLU) declined.
My Read 👩🏻⚕️
Risk appetite improved.
→ Technology (XLK) reclaimed leadership, participation broadened, and several growth and cyclical sectors outperformed defensive areas.
→ GLD’s surge adds another layer to the macro picture, but underneath the SPY, the message was much clearer:
→ Investors were willing to take risk and that risk was spreading beyond one corner of the market.
Biggest Takeaway: Technology (XLK) reclaimed leadership, Consumer Discretionary (XLY) stayed strong, and 8 of 11 sectors finished higher. That's the broader participation I want to see behind a healthy market rally.
III. Important Secondary Assets & Sectors
This week’s specialized ETF performance gave us two very clear leaders: gold miners GDX 0.00%↑ and growth ARKK 0.00%↑ .
Gold miners dominated the leaderboard. GDXJ surged 23.30% and GDX gained 21.31%, confirming the strength we saw in Gold ($gold) itself.
→ However, underneath that precious-metals rally, investors were also taking considerably more risk.
ARKK jumped 11.50%, Software (IGV) gained 8.57%, and Semiconductors (SOXX) rose 7.60%. Homebuilders, Biotechnology, and small caps also finished firmly higher.
That breadth matters.
Gold Miners Confirmed Gold
This wasn’t a situation where Gold rallied while miners refused to participate.
Quite the opposite.
Junior miners actually outperformed the larger miners, which adds another layer of strength to the precious-metals move.
→ Gold isn’t just on my radar anymore.
It’s one of the strongest themes in the market right now.
Growth Confirmed Technology
Part II showed Technology leading the S&P 500.
Now we know what was happening underneath it.
→ Software IGV 0.00%↑ rallied, semiconductors SOXX 0.00%↑ rallied, and speculative growth, represented by ARKK, rallied even harder.
That’s much stronger confirmation than XLK alone could give us.
Energy Was The Clear Weak Spot
The bottom of the table tells the opposite story.
Brent Crude fell 3.99% and XOP dropped 6.20%.
That confirms the weakness we already saw in USO and XLE.
→ For now, energy has lost leadership.
Biggest Takeaway: Gold miners (GDX & GDXJ) dominated, growth (ARKK) broadened, and Energy (XLE & XOP) broke the other way. The market is rewarding both precious metals and risk assets at the same time.
IV. What Assets & Sectors I’m Watching
Here’s what’s at the top of my screen heading into next week.
Gold and the gold miners remain at the top of my watchlist. GLD gained 7.25%, while GDX and GDXJ surged more than 20%.
After moves that large, I’m watching whether they can hold their breakouts or need time to cool off. For me, this is a manage strength, don’t chase strength situation.
I’m also watching Technology and Growth, including QQQ, XLK, IGV, SOXX, and ARKK. Growth came back hard across multiple areas last week.
→ Now I want to see whether that leadership sticks or quickly fades.
Small caps IWM 0.00%↑ are another important piece.
IWM gained 3.56%, but lagged the major growth indexes.
Stronger participation from small caps would give me another sign that risk appetite is continuing to broaden.
I’m keeping long-term Treasuries (TLT) on my screen as well. TLT gained 1.03% after recent weakness, so I’m watching whether this was simply a bounce or the beginning of improving momentum in bonds.
Finally, there’s Oil and Energy. USO, $brent, XLE, and XOP all weakened, making this one of the clearest areas of relative weakness.
I’m watching for stabilization or a potential bottom, but I want price to prove it before treating Energy as a leadership candidate again.
V. Individual Stock Highlights & Winners From Last Week
Profit-Taking Opportunities:
GDX, GDXJ, IGV
AMGN, PFE, MMM, JD, NUE
AMZN, ABNB, DASH, CART, PLTR, MSFT, SNOW, RACE, SNAP, SHAK
GDXU, NUGT, JNUG, AMZU, MSFU, SNOU
Congratulations to everyone in these trades!
VI. Nurse Jess’s Weekend Market Notes
VII. Nurse Jess’s Trade Ideas
Here are the setups I’m watching heading into next week:
1. Main Trade Ideas This Week
TLT
SOXX, ARKK
UBER, TSLA, IBM, META, RDDT
MCD, PEP, HSY, ALB, LHX, CRSP, LVMUY
VKTX, MBLY, ENVX
2. Buy & Hold Undervalued Opportunities
These are trading below fair value or set up for long-term entries:
3. Spec Trade Ideas
VKTX, MBLY, ENVX
4. Leveraged Trade Ideas
TMF
SOXL
UBRL, TSLL, FBL, RDTL
5. My Watchlist
$BRENT, USO
XOP, XLE, XLU, XLRE
D, FE, AAPL, CVX, NKE, DVN, MELI, TTD, SEB, KDP, CMG
6. New Tickers
TTD, MELI, SEB
VIII. Trade Breakdowns
Let’s take a closer look at each setup.
1. Mobileye Global Inc. (MBLY)
Mobileye Global Inc. MBLY 0.00%↑ is entering a breakout here signaled by price closing above its 20-day SMA.
I’m looking to add shares to my MBLY position trade here.
Profit targets:
An extreme-high RSI reading
First target zone: $10.50
Fair value target: $11.10
Previous high target zone: $14.00
MBLY engages in the development and deployment of advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving technologies and solutions.
It’s building a portfolio of end-to-end ADAS and autonomous driving solutions to provide the capabilities needed for the future of autonomous driving, leveraging a comprehensive suite of purpose-built software and hardware technologies.
The company's reportable operating segment are Mobileye and Moovit.
According to Morningstar, MBLY has a fair value of $11.10 and is currently trading fairly valued.
MBLY is part of the Technology sector (XLK) of the S&P 500 (SPY) and the Electronic Equipment sub-sector.
2. Viking Therapeutics, Inc. (VKTX)
Viking Therapeutics, Inc. VKTX 0.00%↑ is in an accumulation zone along its 200-day SMA and currently trading 22% undervalued here.
This is a great opportunity in a speculative biotechnology play as a swing trade or a buy and hold add.
Profit targets:
An extreme-high RSI reading
Previous high target zone: $39-42
Fair value target: $44.09
Stop loss zone: $30
VKTX is a healthcare service provider.
The company specializes in the area of biopharmaceutical development focused on metabolic and endocrine disorders. The company's clinical program pipeline consists of VK2809, VK5211, and VK0214 products.
According to Morningstar, VKTX has a fair value of $44.09 and is currently trading undervalued.
VKTX is part of the Health Care sector (XLV) of the S&P 500 (SPY) and the Biotechnology sub-sector.
IX. The Bottom Line
Last week gave us a much healthier picture beneath the surface.
→ Growth came back and market participation broadened.
→ Gold and the miners showed exceptional strength.
And while Energy moved sharply in the opposite direction, weakness there didn’t stop the broader market from advancing.
For me, the question heading into next week is simple:
→ Can the new leadership hold?
I’m watching whether Technology (XLK) and growth (ARKK) can build on their momentum, whether Gold (GLD) can hold its breakout after such a powerful move, and whether small caps begin participating more aggressively.
At the same time, I’m keeping an eye on Oil and Energy for signs of stabilization rather than trying to call the bottom.
→ There are plenty of opportunities on the board right now, but after a week with moves this large, I’m not interested in chasing them. I’m interested in seeing what holds.
That’s where next week’s opportunities will start to separate themselves from last week’s winners.
Don’t force any trades. Let the setups come to you.
I really like RDDT, TSLA, UBER, MBLY, VKTX, and ENVX here.
Let me know what you’re watching and thank you so much for reading! 🙌
See you Wednesday for the Top Pick of the Week. 🫶
-Nurse Jess 🤝
Know the Big Picture. Focus on the Edge. 👑
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I really like RDDT, TSLA, UBER, MBLY, VKTX, and ENVX here.
Let me know what you’re watching and thank you so much for reading! 🙌
Consumables past month at record 3 year high and potential short term projected growth from the K–12 sector spending includes $14.7B electronics, $12.5B clothing and $8.7B footwear, while back-to-college spending is projected at a record $103.5B, including $24.6B of electronics.